Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timePanetolikos 3:1 Asteras Aktor
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 34%. Panetolikos won 3–1. The biggest difference was Panetolikos's attack: 0.50 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.58).
Goals
- 6' Gustav Granath Panetolikos · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 58' Charis Mavrias Panetolikos · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 78' Federico Macheda Asteras Aktor · 0.47 xG chance 2–1
- 80' Kosta Aleksić Panetolikos · 0.26 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- Panetolikos
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- Asteras Aktor
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Panetolikos produced 0.58 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 4
- 14
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 4
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.41
- 0.97
- Set-piece xG
- 0.10
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.50 for Panetolikos and 1.19 for Asteras Aktor.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
18 shots · 1.68 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Panetolikos
- Asteras Aktor
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.11 xG created 1.32 xGA
- D 0.34 created, 1.40 conceded against AE Kifisia
- L 0.15 created, 1.38 conceded against AE Kifisia
- W 1.08 created, 0.95 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 1.56 created, 0.90 conceded against AE Larisa
- D 1.27 created, 1.40 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- L 2.23 created, 1.86 conceded against Asteras Aktor
1.71 xG created 1.13 xGA
- L 1.24 created, 1.17 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- W 3.22 created, 1.46 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 0.83 created, 0.79 conceded against AE Larisa
- W 1.42 created, 0.70 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- D 1.69 created, 0.44 conceded against AE Kifisia
- W 1.86 created, 2.23 conceded against Panetolikos
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.00 | +3.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos | 33.1% | 34.3% | −1.2 pp | 3.02 |
| Draw | 34.5% | 31.4% | +3.0 pp | 2.90 |
| Asteras Aktor | 32.5% | 34.3% | −1.8 pp | 3.08 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 46.7% | +2.8 pp | 2.02 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.6% | 53.3% | −2.8 pp | 1.98 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | 64.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.48 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 35.5% | −3.2 pp | 3.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | 40.1% | −3.4 pp | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 59.9% | +3.4 pp | 1.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Panetolikos sample
- 20 matches
- Asteras Aktor sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.