Çorum FK 0:1 Kasımpaşa: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Çorum FK Home 1.11 xG · 15 shots

Kasımpaşa Away 0.32 xG · 6 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Çorum FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Kasımpaşa won 1–0. The biggest difference was Kasımpaşa's attack: 0.32 xG against 0.86 projected (−0.54).

Goals

6' Adrian Benedyczak Kasımpaşa · 0.04 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Çorum FK: 41%
Draw: 35%
Kasımpaşa: 24% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Çorum FK 1.17 1.11 -0.06

Kasımpaşa 0.86 0.32 -0.54

Kasımpaşa produced 0.54 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Çorum FK Kasımpaşa

Shots: 15; 6
On target: 2; 1
Inside the box: 10; 3
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.76; 0.30
Set-piece xG: 0.06; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.80 for Çorum FK and 0.31 for Kasımpaşa.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.12 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Çorum FK
Kasımpaşa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Çorum FK

0.61 xG created 2.90 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.90 conceded against Galatasaray

Kasımpaşa

1.03 xG created 1.06 xGA

W 0.61 created, 0.22 conceded against Alanyaspor
L 0.24 created, 2.22 conceded against Başakşehir FK
D 0.85 created, 0.64 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.98 created, 1.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 0.65 created, 0.55 conceded against Galatasaray
D 1.86 created, 0.85 conceded against Trabzonspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Çorum FK against Kasımpaşa before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 1.5 goals	3.80	+36.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+24.0%	Won
Draw	3.40	+17.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.10	+15.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Çorum FK	41.3%	40.6%	+0.7 pp	2.42
Draw	34.7%	26.8%	+7.8 pp	2.88
Kasımpaşa	24.0%	32.6%	−8.6 pp	4.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	45.2%	56.0%	−10.8 pp	2.21
Both teams not to score	54.8%	44.0%	+10.8 pp	1.83
Over 1.5 goals	64.2%	75.2%	−11.1 pp	1.56
Under 1.5 goals	35.8%	24.8%	+11.1 pp	2.79
Over 2.5 goals	33.0%	50.0%	−17.0 pp	3.03
Under 2.5 goals	67.0%	50.0%	+17.0 pp	1.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Çorum FK sample: 1 match
Kasımpaşa sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Çorum FK has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.