Eyüpspor 0:1 Gaziantep FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Eyüpspor Home 0.49 xG · 11 shots

Gaziantep FK Away 1.16 xG · 9 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Gaziantep FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Eyüpspor's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.02 projected (−0.53).

Goals

60' Deian Sorescu Gaziantep FK · 0.04 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Eyüpspor: 30%
Draw: 34%
Gaziantep FK: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Eyüpspor 1.02 0.49 -0.53

Gaziantep FK 1.11 1.16 +0.05

Eyüpspor produced 0.53 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Eyüpspor Gaziantep FK

Shots: 11; 9
On target: 1; 2
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.27; 0.82
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.39 for Eyüpspor and 0.96 for Gaziantep FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.35 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Eyüpspor
Gaziantep FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Eyüpspor

0.83 xG created 1.17 xGA

W 0.32 created, 1.48 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
W 1.45 created, 0.72 conceded against Gaziantep FK
D 0.90 created, 1.46 conceded against Kayserispor
W 1.67 created, 0.75 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
D 0.52 created, 1.33 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.09 created, 1.28 conceded against Beşiktaş

Gaziantep FK

1.24 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 2.38 created, 0.84 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.72 created, 1.45 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 1.68 created, 1.46 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.77 created, 2.08 conceded against Göztepe
L 0.63 created, 2.21 conceded against Başakşehir FK
D 1.28 created, 1.25 conceded against Alanyaspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Eyüpspor: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Eyüpspor sample: 20 matches
Gaziantep FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.