Göztepe 0:1 Gençlerbirliği: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Göztepe Home 1.92 xG · 16 shots

Gençlerbirliği Away 1.56 xG · 10 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Göztepe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. Gençlerbirliği won 1–0. The biggest difference was Gençlerbirliği's attack: 1.56 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.64).

Goals

51' Sekou Koita Gençlerbirliği · 0.61 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Göztepe: 61%
Draw: 25%
Gençlerbirliği: 14% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Göztepe 1.94 1.92 -0.02

Gençlerbirliği 0.92 1.56 +0.64

Gençlerbirliği produced 0.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Göztepe Gençlerbirliği

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.41; 1.46
Set-piece xG: 0.68; 0.06
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.11 for Göztepe and 1.52 for Gençlerbirliği.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.43 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Göztepe
Gençlerbirliği
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Göztepe

1.78 xG created 1.69 xGA

D 0.72 created, 2.77 conceded against Kocaelispor
W 2.44 created, 0.91 conceded against Antalyaspor
D 1.54 created, 0.79 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 2.08 created, 0.77 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 2.20 created, 2.11 conceded against Samsunspor
D 1.71 created, 2.80 conceded against Samsunspor

Gençlerbirliği

1.38 xG created 1.52 xGA

L 0.50 created, 2.19 conceded against Galatasaray
W 1.00 created, 0.66 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 2.14 created, 0.81 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
W 1.86 created, 1.98 conceded against Kasımpaşa
W 1.58 created, 0.57 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 1.19 created, 2.90 conceded against Fenerbahçe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Göztepe: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Göztepe against Gençlerbirliği before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.90	+6.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+5.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+4.5%	Lost
Göztepe to win	1.65	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Göztepe	60.8%	56.7%	+4.1 pp	1.64
Draw	24.8%	24.6%	+0.2 pp	4.03
Gençlerbirliği	14.4%	18.7%	−4.3 pp	6.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.0%	50.0%	+7.0 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	43.0%	50.0%	−7.0 pp	2.32
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	73.1%	+8.7 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	26.9%	−8.7 pp	5.50
Over 2.5 goals	56.2%	50.0%	+6.2 pp	1.78
Under 2.5 goals	43.8%	50.0%	−6.2 pp	2.28

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Göztepe sample: 20 matches
Gençlerbirliği sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.