Konyaspor 1:2 Kocaelispor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Konyaspor Home 0.85 xG · 11 shots

Kocaelispor Away 0.76 xG · 15 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Konyaspor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Kocaelispor won 2–1. The biggest difference was Konyaspor's attack: 0.85 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.39).

Goals

39' Tanguy Zoukrou (o.g.) Konyaspor · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
72' Massadio Haïdara Kocaelispor · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
86' Metehan Altunbaş Kocaelispor · 0.17 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Konyaspor: 44%
Draw: 34%
Kocaelispor: 22% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Konyaspor 1.24 0.85 -0.39

Kocaelispor 0.83 0.76 -0.07

Konyaspor produced 0.39 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Konyaspor Kocaelispor

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 1; 7
Inside the box: 5; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.84; 0.61
Set-piece xG: 0.02; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Konyaspor's shots add up to 0.86 xG and Kocaelispor's to 0.66; the published figures are 0.85 and 0.76.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 1.52 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Konyaspor
Kocaelispor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Konyaspor

1.20 xG created 2.00 xGA

W 1.18 created, 2.11 conceded against Trabzonspor
L 1.40 created, 1.40 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.64 created, 3.19 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 1.18 created, 1.40 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.62 created, 1.52 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 2.15 created, 2.36 conceded against Fenerbahçe

Kocaelispor

0.62 xG created 1.01 xGA

L 0.66 created, 1.00 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
D 0.64 created, 0.85 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.34 created, 0.31 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
L 0.33 created, 1.35 conceded against Antalyaspor
L 0.43 created, 1.96 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 1.31 created, 0.60 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Konyaspor: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Konyaspor against Kocaelispor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+11.4%	Lost
Kocaelispor not to score	2.63	+7.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	+6.1%	Lost
Kocaelispor at most 1 goal	1.30	+4.6%	Lost
Konyaspor at most 1 goal	1.62	+3.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Konyaspor	44.5%	47.8%	−3.4 pp	2.25
Draw	33.7%	28.3%	+5.5 pp	2.96
Kocaelispor	21.8%	23.9%	−2.1 pp	4.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Konyaspor to score	74.1%	75.0%	−0.9 pp	1.35
Konyaspor not to score	25.9%	25.0%	+0.9 pp	3.86
Kocaelispor to score	59.0%	64.5%	−5.5 pp	1.70
Kocaelispor not to score	41.0%	35.5%	+5.5 pp	2.44
Both teams to score	45.6%	50.0%	−4.4 pp	2.19
Both teams not to score	54.4%	50.0%	+4.4 pp	1.84
Konyaspor 2+ goals	35.9%	42.3%	−6.4 pp	2.78
Konyaspor at most 1 goal	64.1%	57.7%	+6.4 pp	1.56
Kocaelispor 2+ goals	19.6%	27.7%	−8.1 pp	5.11
Kocaelispor at most 1 goal	80.4%	72.3%	+8.1 pp	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	65.5%	66.3%	−0.8 pp	1.53
Under 1.5 goals	34.5%	33.7%	+0.8 pp	2.89
Over 2.5 goals	34.3%	41.8%	−7.5 pp	2.91
Under 2.5 goals	65.7%	58.2%	+7.5 pp	1.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Konyaspor sample: 20 matches
Kocaelispor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.