Samsunspor 0:2 Fenerbahçe: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Samsunspor Home 0.46 xG · 6 shots

Fenerbahçe Away 1.56 xG · 15 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

Fenerbahçe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Samsunspor's attack: 0.46 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.78).

Goals

3' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.12 xG chance 0–1
49' Oğuz Aydın Fenerbahçe · 0.04 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Samsunspor: 28%
Draw: 29%
Fenerbahçe: 43% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Samsunspor 1.24 0.46 -0.78

Fenerbahçe 1.56 1.56 +0.00

Samsunspor produced 0.78 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Samsunspor Fenerbahçe

Shots: 6; 15
On target: 0; 7
Inside the box: 3; 13
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.45; 1.35
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.46 for Samsunspor and 1.58 for Fenerbahçe.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Samsunspor
Fenerbahçe
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Samsunspor

1.41 xG created 1.84 xGA

W 1.54 created, 1.10 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 1.37 created, 0.89 conceded against Galatasaray
L 0.32 created, 3.31 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 2.11 created, 2.20 conceded against Göztepe
D 2.80 created, 1.71 conceded against Göztepe
W 0.33 created, 1.85 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor

Fenerbahçe

2.18 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 1.25 created, 2.71 conceded against Galatasaray
W 2.05 created, 0.89 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 3.19 created, 0.64 conceded against Konyaspor
D 1.33 created, 0.52 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 2.90 created, 1.19 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 2.36 created, 2.15 conceded against Konyaspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Samsunspor: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Samsunspor against Fenerbahçe before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Samsunspor to win	5.25	+38.2%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+23.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+3.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+1.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Samsunspor	27.6%	18.0%	+9.7 pp	3.62
Draw	29.3%	23.0%	+6.3 pp	3.41
Fenerbahçe	43.1%	59.0%	−15.9 pp	2.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.1%	57.7%	+4.5 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.9%	42.3%	−4.5 pp	2.64
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	76.6%	+4.5 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	23.4%	−4.5 pp	5.30
Over 2.5 goals	54.7%	55.3%	−0.6 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.3%	44.7%	+0.6 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Samsunspor sample: 20 matches
Fenerbahçe sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.