Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeBrøndby IF 0:3 Randers FC
Brøndby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. Randers FC won 3–0. The biggest difference was Brøndby IF's attack: 1.19 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.43).
Goals
- 4' Elies Mahmoud Randers FC · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
- 66' Mike Themsen Randers FC · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
- 72' Mohamed Sankoh Randers FC · 0.16 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- Brøndby IF
- 51%
- Draw
- 29%
- Randers FC
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Brøndby IF produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 9
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 1.18
- 0.57
- Set-piece xG
- 0.14
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.32 for Brøndby IF and 0.57 for Randers FC.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 1.89 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Brøndby IF
- Randers FC
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.39 xG created 1.60 xGA
- D 0.81 created, 1.91 conceded against AGF
- W 1.34 created, 1.95 conceded against Viborg FF
- W 0.63 created, 0.49 conceded against AC Horsens
- W 1.63 created, 0.92 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
- W 2.14 created, 0.99 conceded against Silkeborg IF
- L 1.76 created, 3.32 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
0.91 xG created 1.87 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.33 | +25.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +19.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +13.5% | Lost |
| Randers FC to win | 5.25 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brøndby IF | 51.3% | 60.5% | −9.2 pp | 1.95 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 21.6% | +7.3 pp | 3.45 |
| Randers FC | 19.7% | 17.9% | +1.8 pp | 5.08 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 54.7% | +1.1 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.3% | 45.3% | −1.1 pp | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | 81.1% | −3.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 18.9% | +3.8 pp | 4.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 59.9% | −10.8 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 40.1% | +10.8 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brøndby IF sample
- 20 matches
- Randers FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.