Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 12:00
Full timeSønderjyske Fodbold 0:3 FC Nordsjælland
FC Nordsjælland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FC Nordsjælland's attack: 1.97 xG against 1.70 projected (+0.27).
Goals
- 44' Markus Walker FC Nordsjælland · 0.01 xG chance 0–1
- 60' Markus Walker FC Nordsjælland · 0.12 xG chance 0–2
- 87' Villum Berthelsen FC Nordsjælland · 0.34 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- Sønderjyske Fodbold
- 25%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Nordsjælland
- 47% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Nordsjælland produced 0.27 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 25
- On target
- 5
- 9
- Inside the box
- 7
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.53
- 2.03
- Set-piece xG
- 0.68
- 0.06
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.22 for Sønderjyske Fodbold and 2.14 for FC Nordsjælland.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 3.30 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sønderjyske Fodbold
- FC Nordsjælland
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.10 xG created 1.71 xGA
- W 1.40 created, 1.35 conceded against Viborg FF
- L 1.99 created, 2.90 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
- L 1.09 created, 0.82 conceded against FC Midtjylland
- L 0.59 created, 2.11 conceded against Odense Boldklub
- D 0.62 created, 1.47 conceded against Viborg FF
- L 0.92 created, 1.63 conceded against Brøndby IF
2.55 xG created 1.11 xGA
- D 0.91 created, 1.49 conceded against Brøndby IF
- D 2.40 created, 0.73 conceded against FC Midtjylland
- W 2.90 created, 1.99 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
- D 2.66 created, 1.50 conceded against AC Horsens
- W 3.70 created, 0.74 conceded against Randers FC
- W 2.70 created, 0.22 conceded against Silkeborg IF
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +13.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +9.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +1.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sønderjyske Fodbold | 24.7% | 25.0% | −0.2 pp | 4.04 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 24.0% | +4.0 pp | 3.57 |
| FC Nordsjælland | 47.3% | 51.1% | −3.8 pp | 2.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 64.5% | −1.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.4% | 35.5% | +1.0 pp | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | 84.2% | −1.2 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.0% | 15.8% | +1.2 pp | 5.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 65.2% | −7.3 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 34.8% | +7.3 pp | 2.37 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sønderjyske Fodbold sample
- 20 matches
- FC Nordsjælland sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.