Viborg FF 4:0 FC København: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Viborg FF Home 1.19 xG · 11 shots

FC København Away 0.34 xG · 8 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viborg FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was FC København's attack: 0.34 xG against 1.59 projected (−1.25). Viborg FF produced 1.19 xG against 1.63 projected (−0.44).

Goals

1' Birger Meling (o.g.) Viborg FF · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
8' Dorian Hanza Viborg FF · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
16' Asker Beck Viborg FF · 0.40 xG chance 3–0
68' Charly Nouck Viborg FF · 0.08 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viborg FF: 37% What happened
Draw: 27%
FC København: 36%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viborg FF 1.63 1.19 -0.44

FC København 1.59 0.34 -1.25

FC København produced 1.25 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viborg FF FC København

Shots: 11; 8
On target: 6; 0
Inside the box: 5; 7
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.34; 0.26
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Viborg FF's shots add up to 1.47 xG and FC København's to 0.37; the published figures are 1.19 and 0.34.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 1.84 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viborg FF
FC København
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viborg FF

1.66 xG created 1.62 xGA

L 1.35 created, 1.40 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 2.09 created, 2.70 conceded against AGF
W 2.04 created, 1.72 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.95 created, 1.34 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.47 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.03 created, 1.92 conceded against AGF

FC København

1.79 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 2.90 created, 1.13 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 2.21 created, 0.22 conceded against Randers FC
D 1.59 created, 1.02 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 1.56 created, 2.34 conceded against Lyngby
W 1.20 created, 1.52 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 1.30 created, 0.46 conceded against Randers FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viborg FF: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viborg FF sample: 20 matches
FC København sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.