Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeFK IMT Beograd 2:0 FK Mladost Lučani
FK IMT Beograd were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- FK IMT Beograd
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 9%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.89 xG created 1.06 xGA
- D 0.58 created, 1.12 conceded against FK TSC Bačka Topola
- W 1.39 created, 1.78 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.98 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 2.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 2.87 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.30 created, 2.23 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
1.17 xG created 1.43 xGA
- W 1.06 created, 0.86 conceded against FK Spartak Subotica
- L 0.31 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- W 2.01 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Javor Ivanjica
- W 1.03 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Napredak Kruševac
- D 1.20 created, 1.87 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- W 1.40 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Partizan
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to win | 1.65 | +10.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +1.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd | 67.0% | 56.8% | +10.2 pp | 1.49 |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.3% | −1.4 pp | 4.17 |
| FK Mladost Lučani | 9.0% | 17.9% | −8.9 pp | 11.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 44.3% | −0.4 pp | 2.28 |
| Both teams not to score | 56.1% | 55.7% | +0.4 pp | 1.78 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | 68.7% | +5.8 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 31.3% | −5.8 pp | 3.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 43.7% | +2.1 pp | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 56.3% | −2.1 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.