Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeFK Radnički Niš 1:1 FK Radnički 1923
FK Radnički Niš were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK Radnički Niš's attack: 0.63 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.85). FK Radnički 1923 produced 0.76 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.37).
The model against the result
- FK Radnički Niš
- 44%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- FK Radnički 1923
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnički Niš produced 0.85 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 9
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
Recent form
1.43 xG created 1.13 xGA
- W 1.42 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Spartak Subotica
- L 1.05 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- L 1.63 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 2.77 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 0.54 created, 2.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- L 1.14 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
2.07 xG created 1.55 xGA
- D 1.56 created, 0.39 conceded against FK Javor Ivanjica
- L 1.88 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- L 1.94 created, 2.37 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 4.05 created, 1.06 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 0.74 created, 4.12 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 2.23 created, 0.30 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 2.50 | +12.2% | Lost |
| FK Radnički Niš to win | 2.45 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +4.6% | Won |
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 1.30 | +3.8% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš | 43.5% | 38.0% | +5.5 pp | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 28.2% | +2.0 pp | 3.31 |
| FK Radnički 1923 | 26.3% | 33.8% | −7.6 pp | 3.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 79.9% | 72.3% | +7.5 pp | 1.25 |
| FK Radnički Niš not to score | 20.1% | 27.7% | −7.5 pp | 4.97 |
| FK Radnički 1923 to score | 70.6% | 68.7% | +1.8 pp | 1.42 |
| FK Radnički 1923 not to score | 29.4% | 31.3% | −1.8 pp | 3.40 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 51.5% | +6.7 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.9% | 48.5% | −6.7 pp | 2.39 |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 44.9% | 37.5% | +7.4 pp | 2.23 |
| FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal | 55.1% | 62.5% | −7.4 pp | 1.81 |
| FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals | 31.7% | 35.5% | −3.8 pp | 3.16 |
| FK Radnički 1923 at most 1 goal | 68.3% | 64.5% | +3.8 pp | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | 72.3% | +5.4 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 27.7% | −5.4 pp | 4.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 47.4% | +2.4 pp | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 52.6% | −2.4 pp | 1.99 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički 1923 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.