Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:00
Full timeFC Sion 1:2 FC Lugano
FC Sion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. FC Lugano won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Lugano's attack: 0.67 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.45). FC Sion produced 1.82 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.39).
Goals
- 3' Dereck Moncada FC Lugano · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
- 55' Winsley Boteli Mokango FC Sion · 0.44 xG chance 1–1
- 79' Beckham Castro FC Lugano · 0.02 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- FC Sion
- 42%
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Lugano
- 27% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Lugano produced 0.45 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 7
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.46
- 0.55
- Set-piece xG
- 0.35
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for FC Sion and 0.67 for FC Lugano.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.49 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Sion
- FC Lugano
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.97 xG created 1.52 xGA
2.03 xG created 1.47 xGA
- L 2.44 created, 2.91 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
- D 1.79 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Sion
- W 1.31 created, 1.32 conceded against Basel
- W 2.03 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Vaduz
- W 2.13 created, 1.83 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
- W 2.46 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Zürich
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +22.2% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +17.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +16.0% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.50 | +6.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Sion | 42.0% | 42.5% | −0.5 pp | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 25.3% | +5.7 pp | 3.23 |
| FC Lugano | 27.0% | 32.2% | −5.2 pp | 3.70 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 62.5% | −5.2 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.7% | 37.5% | +5.2 pp | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | 81.1% | −4.5 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 18.9% | +4.5 pp | 4.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 61.0% | −13.0 pp | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 39.0% | +13.0 pp | 1.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Sion sample
- 20 matches
- FC Lugano sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.