Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFC Vaduz 5:2 Grasshopper Club Zürich
FC Vaduz were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Grasshopper Club Zürich's attack: 2.99 xG against 1.22 projected (+1.77). FC Vaduz produced 2.31 xG against 1.82 projected (+0.49).
Goals
- 12' Lutfi Dalipi FC Vaduz · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 35' Young-Jun Lee Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.85 xG chance 1–1
- 43' Dominik Schwizer FC Vaduz · 0.06 xG chance 2–1
- 45' Nikolas Muci Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.72 xG chance 2–2
- 55' Dominik Schwizer (pen.) FC Vaduz · 0.82 xG chance 3–2
- 58' Juan Cabrera FC Vaduz · 0.07 xG chance 4–2
- 76' Juan Cabrera FC Vaduz · 0.56 xG chance 5–2
The model against the result
- FC Vaduz
- 50% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 23%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Grasshopper Club Zürich produced 1.77 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 16
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.18
- Open play xG
- 1.48
- 2.04
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.87
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for FC Vaduz and 2.99 for Grasshopper Club Zürich.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 5.27 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Vaduz
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.53 xG created 2.30 xGA
1.11 xG created 1.76 xGA
- L 0.90 created, 0.97 conceded against FC Zürich
- W 1.71 created, 1.52 conceded against FC Winterthur
- W 0.52 created, 2.98 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- D 0.74 created, 0.80 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- L 1.83 created, 2.13 conceded against FC Lugano
- L 0.97 created, 2.15 conceded against Servette FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Vaduz to win | 2.10 | +3.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.70 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Vaduz | 50.4% | 45.0% | +5.4 pp | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.5% | +1.3 pp | 3.73 |
| Grasshopper Club Zürich | 22.8% | 29.5% | −6.7 pp | 4.39 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 64.5% | +0.1 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.4% | 35.5% | −0.1 pp | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | 84.2% | +0.3 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.5% | 15.8% | −0.3 pp | 6.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 63.8% | −3.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 36.2% | +3.4 pp | 2.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Vaduz sample
- 4 matches
- Grasshopper Club Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Vaduz has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.