Young Boys 3:3 Basel: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

Young Boys Home 1.77 xG · 21 shots

Basel Away 1.28 xG · 12 shots

33 Young Boys had the better chances, but it finished level

Young Boys were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. It finished 3–3. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

7' Joël Monteiro Young Boys · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
14' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
32' Kazeem Olaigbe Basel · 0.32 xG chance 2–1
37' Asane Sow Basel · 0.12 xG chance 2–2
45' Alvyn Sanches Young Boys · 0.14 xG chance 3–2
71' Akpe Victory Basel · 0.05 xG chance 3–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Young Boys: 52%
Draw: 27% What happened
Basel: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Young Boys 1.79 1.77 -0.02

Basel 1.13 1.28 +0.15

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Young Boys Basel

Shots: 21; 12
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.54; 1.29
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.01
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.77 for Young Boys and 1.28 for Basel.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 3.08 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Young Boys
Basel
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Young Boys

2.67 xG created 1.52 xGA

W 5.57 created, 1.83 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.24 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Sion
W 2.54 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Sion
W 3.38 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.09 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.19 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Vaduz

Basel

1.35 xG created 1.04 xGA

L 1.45 created, 1.30 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Lugano
W 1.61 created, 1.14 conceded against Servette FC
L 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 1.09 created, 0.64 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.64 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Zürich

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Young Boys: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Young Boys against Basel before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+48.3%	Lost
Young Boys not to score	10.00	+44.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+37.8%	Lost
Young Boys at most 1 goal	3.00	+34.1%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+21.6%	Won
Both teams not to score	3.00	+14.2%	Lost
Basel not to score	3.75	+10.3%	Lost
Basel at most 1 goal	1.57	+7.3%	Lost
Basel to win	5.00	+6.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys	51.7%	60.4%	−8.7 pp	1.93
Draw	27.0%	20.8%	+6.2 pp	3.70
Basel	21.2%	18.7%	+2.5 pp	4.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys to score	85.6%	90.4%	−4.8 pp	1.17
Young Boys not to score	14.4%	9.6%	+4.8 pp	6.94
Basel to score	70.6%	75.0%	−4.4 pp	1.42
Basel not to score	29.4%	25.0%	+4.4 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	61.9%	68.7%	−6.8 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	38.1%	31.3%	+6.8 pp	2.63
Young Boys 2+ goals	55.3%	68.7%	−13.5 pp	1.81
Young Boys at most 1 goal	44.7%	31.3%	+13.5 pp	2.24
Basel 2+ goals	31.7%	41.1%	−9.4 pp	3.16
Basel at most 1 goal	68.3%	58.9%	+9.4 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	82.8%	88.1%	−5.3 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.2%	11.9%	+5.3 pp	5.80
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	72.9%	−15.3 pp	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	27.1%	+15.3 pp	2.36

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Young Boys sample: 20 matches
Basel sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.