xgEdge

Expected goals

SC Poltava expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Ukrainian Premier League · after 29 matches · updated 4 Oct

SC Poltava's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ukrainian Premier League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

SC Poltava xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.82 xG per match
#16/16
Attack (xG per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Dynamo Kyiv 2.19
#2 Shakhtar Donetsk 2.06
#3 Polissya Zhytomyr 1.81
#4 LNZ Cherkasy 1.56
#5 Karpaty Lviv 1.50
#6 Zoria Luhansk 1.40
#7 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.40
#8 Metalist 1925 1.33
#9 Kolos Kovalivka 1.31
#10 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.20
#11 Kudrivka 1.13
#12 Veres Rivne 1.07
#13 Obolon Kyiv 1.06
#14 Rukh Lviv 1.00
#15 Oleksandria 0.83
#16 SC Poltava 0.82
League avg
1.35
Total
23.87 29 matches
Defence
2.35 xGA per match
#16/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 LNZ Cherkasy 0.65
#2 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.70
#3 Metalist 1925 0.79
#4 Dynamo Kyiv 0.85
#5 Polissya Zhytomyr 1.14
#6 Kolos Kovalivka 1.26
#7 Karpaty Lviv 1.26
#8 Obolon Kyiv 1.32
#9 Zoria Luhansk 1.39
#10 Rukh Lviv 1.50
#11 Veres Rivne 1.51
#12 Kudrivka 1.56
#13 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.60
#14 Oleksandria 1.78
#15 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.96
#16 SC Poltava 2.35
League avg
1.35
Total
68.13 29 matches
xG difference
-1.53 xGD per match
#16/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Shakhtar Donetsk +1.36
#2 Dynamo Kyiv +1.33
#3 LNZ Cherkasy +0.91
#4 Polissya Zhytomyr +0.67
#5 Metalist 1925 +0.54
#6 Karpaty Lviv +0.24
#7 Kolos Kovalivka +0.05
#8 Zoria Luhansk +0.00
#9 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih -0.21
#10 Obolon Kyiv -0.26
#11 Kudrivka -0.43
#12 Veres Rivne -0.44
#13 Rukh Lviv -0.49
#14 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi -0.76
#15 Oleksandria -0.95
#16 SC Poltava -1.53
League avg
0.00
Total
-44.26 29 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.53 xPts per match
#16/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Dynamo Kyiv 2.20
#2 Shakhtar Donetsk 2.14
#3 LNZ Cherkasy 2.08
#4 Polissya Zhytomyr 1.76
#5 Metalist 1925 1.72
#6 Karpaty Lviv 1.55
#7 Kolos Kovalivka 1.41
#8 Zoria Luhansk 1.36
#9 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.26
#10 Rukh Lviv 1.14
#11 Obolon Kyiv 1.14
#12 Veres Rivne 1.09
#13 Kudrivka 1.08
#14 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.95
#15 Oleksandria 0.76
#16 SC Poltava 0.53
League avg
1.38
Total
15.23 vs 13 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 29 of 30 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

SC Poltava's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Ukrainian Premier League. They rank #16 for xG difference at -1.53 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume and low chance quality. Their 23 goals are 0.87 below 23.87 xG, while 12 points are 3.23 below 15.23 xPts — both over the 29 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 3.35 xG from penalties
23 23.87 -0.87 scored 0.87 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
74 68.13 +5.87 conceded 5.87 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
12 15.23 -3.23 3.23 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

SC Poltava are 0.87 goals below their xG after 29 matches. The gap was widest at -2.33, against Metalist 1925 on Thu 19/03.

Goals
23
xG
23.87
Gap
-0.87
Fri 01/08 Fri 08/08 Sun 17/08 Fri 29/08 Sun 14/09 Sun 21/09 Sat 27/09 Sat 04/10 Fri 17/10 Sun 26/10 Sat 01/11 Sun 09/11 Fri 21/11 Mon 01/12 Mon 08/12 Sun 14/12 Fri 20/02 Mon 02/03 Sun 08/03 Fri 13/03 Thu 19/03 Fri 03/04 Fri 10/04 Fri 17/04 Fri 24/04 Fri 01/05 Sun 10/05 Wed 13/05 Sat 16/05 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.08 +0.45 +0.32 -0.07 +0.34 -0.09 -1.11 -1.57 -1.47 -0.73 -0.58 +0.09 -0.24 +1.15 +0.35 +1.04 +0.87 -0.34 -1.06 -2.05 -2.33 -0.78 -0.95 -1.26 -1.43 +0.45 +0.09 -0.14 -0.87 -0.08 +0.53 -0.13 -0.39 +0.41 -0.43 -1.02 -0.46 +0.10 +0.74 +0.15 +0.67 -0.33 +1.39 -0.80 +0.69 -0.17 -1.21 -0.72 -0.99 -0.28 +1.55 -0.17 -0.31 -0.17 +1.88 -0.36 -0.23 -0.73 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
SC Poltava: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 01/08 Rukh Lviv 1 1.08 -0.08 -0.08
Fri 08/08 Veres Rivne 1 0.47 +0.53 +0.45
Sun 17/08 Kudrivka 1 1.13 -0.13 +0.32
Fri 29/08 Zoria Luhansk 1 1.39 -0.39 -0.07
Sun 14/09 Karpaty Lviv 1 0.59 +0.41 +0.34
Sun 21/09 Metalist 1925 0 0.43 -0.43 -0.09
Sat 27/09 Oleksandria 0 1.02 -1.02 -1.11
Sat 04/10 Polissya Zhytomyr 0 0.46 -0.46 -1.57
Fri 17/10 Obolon Kyiv 1 0.90 +0.10 -1.47
Sun 26/10 Kolos Kovalivka 2 1.26 +0.74 -0.73
Sat 01/11 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2 1.85 +0.15 -0.58
Sun 09/11 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 0.33 +0.67 +0.09
Fri 21/11 LNZ Cherkasy 0 0.33 -0.33 -0.24
Mon 01/12 Dynamo Kyiv 2 0.61 +1.39 +1.15
Mon 08/12 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0 0.80 -0.80 +0.35
Sun 14/12 Rukh Lviv 1 0.31 +0.69 +1.04
Fri 20/02 Veres Rivne 2 2.17 -0.17 +0.87
Mon 02/03 Kudrivka 0 1.21 -1.21 -0.34
Sun 08/03 Zoria Luhansk 0 0.72 -0.72 -1.06
Fri 13/03 Karpaty Lviv 0 0.99 -0.99 -2.05
Thu 19/03 Metalist 1925 0 0.28 -0.28 -2.33
Fri 03/04 Oleksandria 3 1.45 +1.55 -0.78
Fri 10/04 Polissya Zhytomyr 0 0.17 -0.17 -0.95
Fri 17/04 Obolon Kyiv 1 1.31 -0.31 -1.26
Fri 24/04 Kolos Kovalivka 0 0.17 -0.17 -1.43
Fri 01/05 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 3 1.12 +1.88 +0.45
Sun 10/05 Shakhtar Donetsk 0 0.36 -0.36 +0.09
Wed 13/05 LNZ Cherkasy 0 0.23 -0.23 -0.14
Sat 16/05 Dynamo Kyiv 0 0.73 -0.73 -0.87

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

SC Poltava xG trend

Current form -1.97 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 29 matches. The worst was against Shakhtar Donetsk on Sun 10/05 (-3.71).

npxG · last 6
0.53
npxGA · last 6
2.49
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.14 Fri 01/08 -1.27 Fri 08/08 +0.43 Sun 17/08 -0.60 Fri 29/08 -1.53 Sun 14/09 -1.35 Sun 21/09 +0.01 Sat 27/09 -2.43 Sat 04/10 -0.57 Fri 17/10 -2.03 Sun 26/10 -0.48 Sat 01/11 -2.70 Sun 09/11 -1.20 Fri 21/11 -1.87 Mon 01/12 -0.91 Mon 08/12 -1.01 Sun 14/12 -1.40 Fri 20/02 +0.46 Mon 02/03 -1.72 Sun 08/03 -1.05 Fri 13/03 -2.47 Thu 19/03 -0.76 Fri 03/04 -2.02 Fri 10/04 -2.88 Fri 17/04 -0.80 Fri 24/04 -1.55 Fri 01/05 -3.71 Sun 10/05 -1.70 Wed 13/05 -1.16 Sat 16/05 -1.32 season avg
SC Poltava: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 01/08 Rukh Lviv 0.42 0.56 -0.14 -0.14
Fri 08/08 Veres Rivne 0.48 1.75 -1.27 -0.71
Sun 17/08 Kudrivka 1.13 0.70 +0.43 -0.33
Fri 29/08 Zoria Luhansk 1.39 1.99 -0.60 -0.40
Sun 14/09 Karpaty Lviv 0.59 2.12 -1.53 -0.62
Sun 21/09 Metalist 1925 0.36 1.71 -1.35 -0.74
Sat 27/09 Oleksandria 1.00 0.99 +0.01 -0.64
Sat 04/10 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.46 2.89 -2.43 -0.86
Fri 17/10 Obolon Kyiv 0.90 1.47 -0.57 -0.83
Sun 26/10 Kolos Kovalivka 1.26 3.29 -2.03 -0.95
Sat 01/11 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.83 2.31 -0.48 -0.91
Sun 09/11 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.43 3.13 -2.70 -1.06
Fri 21/11 LNZ Cherkasy 0.33 1.53 -1.20 -1.07
Mon 01/12 Dynamo Kyiv 0.61 2.48 -1.87 -1.12
Mon 08/12 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.80 1.71 -0.91 -1.11
Sun 14/12 Rukh Lviv 0.31 1.32 -1.01 -1.10
Fri 20/02 Veres Rivne 1.40 2.80 -1.40 -1.12
Mon 02/03 Kudrivka 1.13 0.67 +0.46 -1.03
Sun 08/03 Zoria Luhansk 0.72 2.44 -1.72 -1.07
Fri 13/03 Karpaty Lviv 0.21 1.26 -1.05 -1.07
Thu 19/03 Metalist 1925 0.28 2.75 -2.47 -1.13
Fri 03/04 Oleksandria 1.15 1.91 -0.76 -1.12
Fri 10/04 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.17 2.19 -2.02 -1.16
Fri 17/04 Obolon Kyiv 0.55 3.43 -2.88 -1.23
Fri 24/04 Kolos Kovalivka 0.17 0.97 -0.80 -1.21
Fri 01/05 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.12 2.67 -1.55 -1.22
Sun 10/05 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.36 4.07 -3.71 -1.32
Wed 13/05 LNZ Cherkasy 0.23 1.93 -1.70 -1.33
Sat 16/05 Dynamo Kyiv 0.73 1.89 -1.16 -1.32

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.71 npxG and 2.03 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 16 in Ukrainian Premier League
+0.10 xG vs league average
Over 30 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 16 in Ukrainian Premier League
+0.39 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.10 xG vs league average · over 30 matches · number 1 hardest of 16

  1. FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi Away −0.34
  2. Dynamo Kyiv Home +0.92
  3. LNZ Cherkasy Away +0.45
  4. Shakhtar Donetsk Home +0.86
  5. FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Home +0.07
  6. Kolos Kovalivka Away +0.08
  7. Obolon Kyiv Away −0.04
  8. Polissya Zhytomyr Home +0.57
  9. Oleksandria Home −0.57
  10. Metalist 1925 Away +0.46
  11. Karpaty Lviv Home +0.14
  12. Zoria Luhansk Away 0.00
  13. Kudrivka Home −0.31
  14. Veres Rivne Away −0.33
  15. Rukh Lviv Home −0.51
  16. FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi Home −0.34
  17. Dynamo Kyiv Away +0.92
  18. LNZ Cherkasy Home +0.45
  19. Shakhtar Donetsk Away +0.86
  20. FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Away +0.07
  21. Kolos Kovalivka Home +0.08
  22. Obolon Kyiv Home −0.04
  23. Polissya Zhytomyr Away +0.57
  24. Oleksandria Away −0.57
  25. Metalist 1925 Home +0.46
  26. Karpaty Lviv Away +0.14
  27. Zoria Luhansk Home 0.00
  28. Kudrivka Away −0.31
  29. Veres Rivne Home −0.33
  30. Rukh Lviv Away −0.51

Last 5

+0.39 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 16

  1. FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi Away −0.34
  2. Dynamo Kyiv Home +0.92
  3. LNZ Cherkasy Away +0.45
  4. Shakhtar Donetsk Home +0.86
  5. FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Home +0.07

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

SC Poltava shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. SC Poltava take 7.8 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #16 in Ukrainian Premier League for volume and #13 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 56%).

Attack

Shot volume
7.8 shots per match
#16/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Dynamo Kyiv 16.7
#2 Shakhtar Donetsk 16.1
#3 Metalist 1925 14.4
#4 Polissya Zhytomyr 14.3
#5 Karpaty Lviv 13.9
#6 LNZ Cherkasy 13.0
#7 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 12.9
#8 Kolos Kovalivka 12.4
#9 Zoria Luhansk 12.2
#10 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 11.4
#11 Kudrivka 10.7
#12 Veres Rivne 9.7
#13 Obolon Kyiv 9.6
#14 Rukh Lviv 9.2
#15 Oleksandria 8.4
#16 SC Poltava 7.8
League avg
12.0
Total
225 shots from 29 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#13/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Dynamo Kyiv 0.12
#2 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.12
#3 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.11
#4 LNZ Cherkasy 0.11
#5 Zoria Luhansk 0.11
#6 Veres Rivne 0.11
#7 Obolon Kyiv 0.10
#8 Karpaty Lviv 0.10
#9 Rukh Lviv 0.10
#10 Oleksandria 0.10
#11 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.10
#12 Kolos Kovalivka 0.10
#13 SC Poltava 0.09
#14 Kudrivka 0.09
#15 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.09
#16 Metalist 1925 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
20.52 npxG from 225 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
18.3 shots per match
#16/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Shakhtar Donetsk 6.5
#2 Metalist 1925 8.1
#3 LNZ Cherkasy 8.5
#4 Dynamo Kyiv 8.8
#5 Polissya Zhytomyr 10.1
#6 Kolos Kovalivka 11.4
#7 Rukh Lviv 11.8
#8 Karpaty Lviv 11.8
#9 Zoria Luhansk 12.2
#10 Obolon Kyiv 12.7
#11 Veres Rivne 13.0
#12 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 14.0
#13 Kudrivka 14.1
#14 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 14.7
#15 Oleksandria 15.9
#16 SC Poltava 18.3
League avg
12.0
Total
531 shots allowed from 29 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#13/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ukrainian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 LNZ Cherkasy 0.08
#2 Metalist 1925 0.09
#3 Obolon Kyiv 0.09
#4 Dynamo Kyiv 0.09
#5 Karpaty Lviv 0.10
#6 Oleksandria 0.10
#7 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.10
#8 Kolos Kovalivka 0.10
#9 Polissya Zhytomyr 0.10
#10 Zoria Luhansk 0.11
#11 Kudrivka 0.11
#12 Veres Rivne 0.11
#13 SC Poltava 0.11
#14 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.11
#15 Rukh Lviv 0.12
#16 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
58.93 npxGA from 531 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 56%

From 133 of 225 shots over 29 matches

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 56%

From 313 of 531 shots allowed over 29 matches

How the shot figures are made →

SC Poltava home and away xG

SC Poltava per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 15 15 14 with xG
xG / match 0.79 0.85
xGA / match 2.20 2.51
xGD / match -1.41 -1.66
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.54 0.51

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every SC Poltava match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5 4 with xG
xG / match
0.61
xGA / match
2.83
xGD / match
-2.22
Points
2 of 15
  1. Sat 23/05 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi A
  2. Sat 16/05 Dynamo Kyiv H xG 0.73 xGA 2.65 P xGD -1.92
  3. Wed 13/05 LNZ Cherkasy A xG 0.23 xGA 1.93 xGD -1.70
  4. Sun 10/05 Shakhtar Donetsk H xG 0.36 xGA 4.07 xGD -3.71
  5. Fri 01/05 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih H xG 1.12 xGA 2.67 xGD -1.55

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.07. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

SC Poltava in Ukrainian Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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