Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeShakhtar Donetsk 0:2 Polissya Zhytomyr
Shakhtar Donetsk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Polissya Zhytomyr won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 42%
- Draw
- 32%
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.81 xG created 0.77 xGA
- W 4.07 created, 0.36 conceded against SC Poltava
- W 0.54 created, 0.78 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- W 1.19 created, 1.20 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- W 2.80 created, 0.29 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.39 created, 0.47 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 0.88 created, 1.51 conceded against Metalist 1925
2.15 xG created 1.16 xGA
- W 2.45 created, 1.21 conceded against Oleksandria
- L 4.56 created, 2.37 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 1.64 created, 1.01 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 1.12 created, 0.22 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.26 created, 1.32 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 1.87 created, 0.83 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals | 4.33 | +25.0% | Won |
| Polissya Zhytomyr to win | 4.75 | +24.3% | Won |
| Polissya Zhytomyr to score | 1.67 | +14.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +10.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +9.9% | Lost |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +6.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 42.2% | 55.5% | −13.3 pp | 2.37 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 25.6% | +6.0 pp | 3.16 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 26.2% | 18.9% | +7.3 pp | 3.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk to score | 77.5% | 78.3% | −0.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to score | 22.5% | 21.7% | +0.8 pp | 4.45 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr to score | 68.4% | 55.7% | +12.7 pp | 1.46 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr not to score | 31.6% | 44.3% | −12.7 pp | 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 46.3% | +8.6 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.1% | 53.7% | −8.6 pp | 2.22 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals | 41.0% | 48.5% | −7.5 pp | 2.44 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk at most 1 goal | 59.0% | 51.5% | +7.5 pp | 1.70 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals | 28.9% | 21.7% | +7.2 pp | 3.47 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr at most 1 goal | 71.1% | 78.3% | −7.2 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | 68.7% | +5.6 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 31.3% | −5.6 pp | 3.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 44.7% | +0.2 pp | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 55.3% | −0.2 pp | 1.82 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.