TPS 0:0 Inter Turku: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

TPS Home 1.03 xG

Inter Turku Away 2.27 xG

00 Inter Turku had the better chances, but it finished level

Inter Turku were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Inter Turku's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.60 projected (+0.67).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

TPS: 25%
Draw: 29% What happened
Inter Turku: 46%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

TPS 1.15 1.03 -0.12

Inter Turku 1.60 2.27 +0.67

Inter Turku produced 0.67 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

TPS Inter Turku

Shots: 10; 17
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 3; 11
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

TPS

1.69 xG created 1.84 xGA

W 1.90 created, 0.63 conceded against AC Oulu
L 0.98 created, 3.33 conceded against Ilves
L 1.25 created, 2.36 conceded against HJK
W 1.73 created, 2.08 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 2.01 created, 1.69 conceded against KuPS
W 2.26 created, 0.97 conceded against VPS

Inter Turku

2.29 xG created 1.00 xGA

D 0.95 created, 0.75 conceded against SJK
W 3.53 created, 0.05 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 1.62 created, 0.65 conceded against FF Jaro
L 3.74 created, 1.78 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 0.87 created, 0.99 conceded against VPS
D 3.02 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Lahti

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

TPS: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Inter Turku 2:1 TPS 23/05/2026

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on TPS against Inter Turku before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.75	+8.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.70	+2.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TPS	24.5%	24.5%	+0.0 pp	4.08
Draw	29.0%	24.5%	+4.5 pp	3.45
Inter Turku	46.4%	51.0%	−4.6 pp	2.15

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.0%	54.7%	+5.4 pp	1.67
Both teams not to score	40.0%	45.3%	−5.4 pp	2.50
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	76.6%	+3.4 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.0%	23.4%	−3.4 pp	4.99
Over 2.5 goals	53.2%	53.9%	−0.8 pp	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	46.8%	46.1%	+0.8 pp	2.13

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
TPS sample: 19 matches
Inter Turku sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.