AIK 3:2 Hammarby IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

AIK Home 1.91 xG

Hammarby IF Away 4.26 xG

32 The result went against the chances

Hammarby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. AIK won 3–2. The biggest difference was Hammarby IF's attack: 4.26 xG against 2.57 projected (+1.69). AIK produced 1.91 xG against 1.11 projected (+0.80).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AIK: 12% What happened
Draw: 19%
Hammarby IF: 69%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AIK 1.11 1.91 +0.80

Hammarby IF 2.57 4.26 +1.69

Hammarby IF produced 1.69 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AIK Hammarby IF

Shots: 11; 32
On target: 6; 12
Inside the box: 10; 24
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AIK

1.38 xG created 2.67 xGA

W 1.28 created, 4.78 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 1.92 created, 1.24 conceded against GAIS
D 0.29 created, 2.96 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.35 created, 2.36 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.96 created, 2.39 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.49 created, 2.26 conceded against Djurgårdens IF

Hammarby IF

2.85 xG created 0.74 xGA

W 1.52 created, 1.12 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.32 created, 0.71 conceded against Degerfors IF
D 2.32 created, 0.80 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 3.17 created, 0.38 conceded against BK Häcken
W 3.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.00 created, 1.01 conceded against GAIS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AIK: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AIK against Hammarby IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Hammarby IF to win	1.45	+14.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.50	+12.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+7.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+4.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AIK	11.7%	15.6%	−4.0 pp	8.57
Draw	18.9%	19.7%	−0.9 pp	5.30
Hammarby IF	69.5%	64.6%	+4.8 pp	1.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.7%	58.9%	+7.8 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.3%	41.1%	−7.8 pp	3.00
Over 1.5 goals	91.1%	82.8%	+8.3 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	8.9%	17.2%	−8.3 pp	11.23
Over 2.5 goals	73.5%	62.5%	+11.0 pp	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	26.5%	37.5%	−11.0 pp	3.77

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AIK sample: 20 matches
Hammarby IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.