Degerfors IF 2:0 Halmstads BK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Degerfors IF Home 2.83 xG

Halmstads BK Away 0.80 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Degerfors IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Degerfors IF's attack: 2.83 xG against 1.84 projected (+0.99). Halmstads BK produced 0.80 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.57).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Degerfors IF: 47% What happened
Draw: 27%
Halmstads BK: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Degerfors IF 1.84 2.83 +0.99

Halmstads BK 1.37 0.80 -0.57

Degerfors IF produced 0.99 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Degerfors IF Halmstads BK

Shots: 21; 11
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 15; 6
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Degerfors IF

1.13 xG created 1.95 xGA

L 1.18 created, 2.13 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 1.92 created, 2.21 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 0.70 created, 2.53 conceded against Malmö FF
W 1.69 created, 1.13 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 1.08 created, 2.05 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 0.18 created, 1.63 conceded against IF Elfsborg

Halmstads BK

1.43 xG created 2.78 xGA

D 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against GAIS
L 0.97 created, 3.10 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.90 created, 3.81 conceded against GAIS
L 1.21 created, 2.78 conceded against BK Häcken
D 2.67 created, 2.09 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.31 created, 1.94 conceded against Kalmar FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Degerfors IF: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Degerfors IF against Halmstads BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+25.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.75	+22.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+11.5%	Won
Halmstads BK to win	3.40	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Degerfors IF	47.4%	45.7%	+1.8 pp	2.11
Draw	26.5%	26.8%	−0.2 pp	3.77
Halmstads BK	26.0%	27.5%	−1.5 pp	3.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.3%	53.3%	+15.0 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.7%	46.7%	−15.0 pp	3.15
Over 1.5 goals	86.7%	75.0%	+11.7 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.3%	25.0%	−11.7 pp	7.53
Over 2.5 goals	64.3%	51.3%	+13.0 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.7%	48.7%	−13.0 pp	2.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Degerfors IF sample: 20 matches
Halmstads BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.