Djurgårdens IF 4:0 Mjällby AIF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Djurgårdens IF Home 3.00 xG

Mjällby AIF Away 0.17 xG

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Djurgårdens IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Mjällby AIF's attack: 0.17 xG against 1.36 projected (−1.19). Djurgårdens IF produced 3.00 xG against 2.25 projected (+0.75).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Djurgårdens IF: 57% What happened
Draw: 23%
Mjällby AIF: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Djurgårdens IF 2.25 3.00 +0.75

Mjällby AIF 1.36 0.17 -1.19

Mjällby AIF produced 1.19 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Djurgårdens IF Mjällby AIF

Shots: 16; 2
On target: 7; 0
Inside the box: 13; 2
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Djurgårdens IF

2.43 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 2.87 created, 0.89 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK

Mjällby AIF

2.01 xG created 2.28 xGA

D 2.32 created, 2.24 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 1.10 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Sirius
L 4.78 created, 1.28 conceded against AIK
L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Djurgårdens IF: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Djurgårdens IF against Mjällby AIF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	3.40	+37.1%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to win	6.00	+18.7%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to score	1.50	+15.6%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+15.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+10.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+3.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF	57.4%	62.6%	−5.3 pp	1.74
Draw	22.8%	21.7%	+1.1 pp	4.38
Mjällby AIF	19.8%	15.7%	+4.1 pp	5.05

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF to score	91.3%	88.1%	+3.2 pp	1.10
Djurgårdens IF not to score	8.7%	11.9%	−3.2 pp	11.51
Mjällby AIF to score	77.0%	62.5%	+14.5 pp	1.30
Mjällby AIF not to score	23.0%	37.5%	−14.5 pp	4.35
Both teams to score	71.4%	57.7%	+13.8 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.6%	42.3%	−13.8 pp	3.50
Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals	68.3%	64.5%	+3.7 pp	1.47
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	31.7%	35.5%	−3.7 pp	3.15
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	40.3%	27.7%	+12.7 pp	2.48
Mjällby AIF at most 1 goal	59.7%	72.3%	−12.7 pp	1.68
Over 1.5 goals	90.6%	82.8%	+7.8 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.4%	17.2%	−7.8 pp	10.66
Over 2.5 goals	72.2%	61.0%	+11.2 pp	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	27.8%	39.0%	−11.2 pp	3.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.