IF Brommapojkarna 2:1 IF Elfsborg: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IF Brommapojkarna Home 1.51 xG

IF Elfsborg Away 0.98 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

IF Elfsborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. IF Brommapojkarna won 2–1. The biggest difference was IF Elfsborg's attack: 0.98 xG against 1.72 projected (−0.74).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Brommapojkarna: 30% What happened
Draw: 27%
IF Elfsborg: 42%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1.46 1.51 +0.05

IF Elfsborg 1.72 0.98 -0.74

IF Elfsborg produced 0.74 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Brommapojkarna IF Elfsborg

Shots: 14; 9
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.61 xG created 2.18 xGA

D 0.80 created, 2.32 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 1.73 created, 3.22 conceded against Malmö FF
D 0.55 created, 2.16 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.40 created, 1.29 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.05 created, 1.08 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 1.13 created, 2.99 conceded against GAIS

IF Elfsborg

2.14 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 2.21 created, 1.83 conceded against GAIS
L 2.44 created, 3.67 conceded against IK Sirius
W 0.92 created, 1.28 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.47 created, 1.87 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 2.19 created, 0.99 conceded against Västerås SK
W 1.63 created, 0.18 conceded against Degerfors IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Brommapojkarna: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Brommapojkarna against IF Elfsborg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+10.8%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+8.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+3.6%	Won
IF Brommapojkarna to win	3.30	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Brommapojkarna	30.5%	28.7%	+1.8 pp	3.28
Draw	27.3%	26.3%	+1.0 pp	3.67
IF Elfsborg	42.2%	45.1%	−2.8 pp	2.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.6%	57.7%	+11.0 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.4%	42.3%	−11.0 pp	3.19
Over 1.5 goals	86.4%	78.3%	+8.1 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.6%	21.7%	−8.1 pp	7.34
Over 2.5 goals	63.7%	55.3%	+8.4 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.3%	44.7%	−8.4 pp	2.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Brommapojkarna sample: 20 matches
IF Elfsborg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.