Wolfsberger AC 1:3 LASK: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Tuesday, 01/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Wolfsberger AC Home 0.27 xG · 7 shots

LASK Away 2.79 xG · 25 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

LASK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was LASK's attack: 2.79 xG against 1.93 projected (+0.86). Wolfsberger AC produced 0.27 xG against 0.90 projected (−0.63).

Goals

34' Fabian Wohlmuth Wolfsberger AC · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
54' Xavier Mbuyamba LASK · 0.32 xG chance 1–1
68' Melayro Bogarde LASK · 0.02 xG chance 1–2
84' Alessandro Schöpf LASK · 0.38 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wolfsberger AC: 14%
Draw: 25%
LASK: 61% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wolfsberger AC 0.90 0.27 -0.63

LASK 1.93 2.79 +0.86

LASK produced 0.86 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wolfsberger AC LASK

Shots: 7; 25
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 3; 18
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.12; 0.94
Set-piece xG: 0.15; 1.58
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.55 for LASK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.79 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Wolfsberger AC
LASK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.13 xG created 1.86 xGA

W 1.26 created, 0.30 conceded against WSG Tirol
L 0.34 created, 1.73 conceded against SV Ried
W 2.80 created, 0.35 conceded against Austria Wien
D 0.93 created, 3.52 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 1.33 created, 3.13 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
D 0.09 created, 2.14 conceded against Grazer AK 1902

LASK

2.36 xG created 0.72 xGA

W 1.03 created, 1.34 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
W 1.90 created, 0.74 conceded against Austria Wien
W 2.31 created, 0.99 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 3.71 created, 0.21 conceded against Austria Wien
W 2.32 created, 0.76 conceded against SV Ried
W 2.88 created, 0.28 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Wolfsberger AC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wolfsberger AC against LASK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+16.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+12.3%	Lost
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal	1.40	+8.5%	Won
Draw	4.33	+7.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.38	+4.2%	Lost
Wolfsberger AC not to score	2.75	+3.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolfsberger AC	14.1%	16.2%	−2.1 pp	7.08
Draw	24.8%	21.5%	+3.3 pp	4.03
LASK	61.1%	62.2%	−1.2 pp	1.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolfsberger AC to score	62.4%	66.3%	−3.8 pp	1.60
Wolfsberger AC not to score	37.6%	33.7%	+3.8 pp	2.66
LASK to score	87.6%	86.4%	+1.2 pp	1.14
LASK not to score	12.4%	13.6%	−1.2 pp	8.06
Both teams to score	56.1%	60.8%	−4.6 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.9%	39.2%	+4.6 pp	2.28
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals	22.5%	33.7%	−11.3 pp	4.45
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal	77.5%	66.3%	+11.3 pp	1.29
LASK 2+ goals	59.5%	60.8%	−1.3 pp	1.68
LASK at most 1 goal	40.5%	39.2%	+1.3 pp	2.47
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	84.2%	−2.9 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	15.8%	+2.9 pp	5.34
Over 2.5 goals	55.4%	63.8%	−8.4 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.6%	36.2%	+8.4 pp	2.24

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wolfsberger AC sample: 20 matches
LASK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.