LASK 3:0 SC Rheindorf Altach: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

LASK Home 2.88 xG · 22 shots

SC Rheindorf Altach Away 0.28 xG · 7 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

LASK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was LASK's attack: 2.88 xG against 2.05 projected (+0.83). SC Rheindorf Altach produced 0.28 xG against 0.79 projected (−0.51).

Goals

3' Christoph Lang LASK · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
19' Christoph Lang LASK · 0.39 xG chance 2–0
89' Florian Flecker LASK · 0.07 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

LASK: 67% What happened
Draw: 23%
SC Rheindorf Altach: 11%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

LASK 2.05 2.88 +0.83

SC Rheindorf Altach 0.79 0.28 -0.51

LASK produced 0.83 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

LASK SC Rheindorf Altach

Shots: 22; 7
On target: 11; 2
Inside the box: 16; 3
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.04
Open play xG: 2.46; 0.17
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.16 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

LASK
SC Rheindorf Altach
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

LASK

2.27 xG created 0.81 xGA

W 2.37 created, 0.83 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
W 1.03 created, 1.34 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
W 1.90 created, 0.74 conceded against Austria Wien
W 2.31 created, 0.99 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 3.71 created, 0.21 conceded against Austria Wien
W 2.32 created, 0.76 conceded against SV Ried

SC Rheindorf Altach

1.78 xG created 1.21 xGA

D 0.76 created, 0.92 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 3.78 created, 1.11 conceded against SV Ried
L 1.29 created, 1.63 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
W 1.48 created, 0.84 conceded against WSG Tirol
L 1.44 created, 1.53 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 1.91 created, 1.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

LASK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on LASK against SC Rheindorf Altach before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+4.1%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+2.0%	Lost
SC Rheindorf Altach at most 1 goal	1.22	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
LASK	66.7%	66.5%	+0.3 pp	1.50
Draw	22.7%	21.0%	+1.7 pp	4.41
SC Rheindorf Altach	10.6%	12.6%	−1.9 pp	9.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
LASK to score	89.1%	88.1%	+1.0 pp	1.12
LASK not to score	10.9%	11.9%	−1.0 pp	9.18
SC Rheindorf Altach to score	57.8%	57.7%	+0.1 pp	1.73
SC Rheindorf Altach not to score	42.2%	42.3%	−0.1 pp	2.37
Both teams to score	52.9%	52.0%	+0.9 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.1%	48.0%	−0.9 pp	2.12
LASK 2+ goals	62.9%	64.5%	−1.6 pp	1.59
LASK at most 1 goal	37.1%	35.5%	+1.6 pp	2.70
SC Rheindorf Altach 2+ goals	18.1%	23.4%	−5.3 pp	5.54
SC Rheindorf Altach at most 1 goal	81.9%	76.6%	+5.3 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	81.1%	+0.3 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	18.9%	−0.3 pp	5.37
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	59.9%	−4.3 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	40.1%	+4.3 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
LASK sample: 20 matches
SC Rheindorf Altach sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.