Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
27d 15h to kick-offFC Augsburg – SC Freiburg
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Augsburg
- 34%
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Freiburg
- 40%
| FC Augsburg | Draw | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.97 | 3.79 | 2.50 |
- Total goals
- 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SC Freiburg
40% SC Freiburg to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 18th
- SC Freiburg attack v FC Augsburg defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 10th
- SC Freiburg defence v FC Augsburg attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.64 vs -0.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.77
- FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.72 · joint 10th from 4 matches | (better) 2.22 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.30 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 0.91 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.58 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) +1.31 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.99 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 2.26 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.65 | (better) +0.64 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- SC Freiburg clean sheet
- 17%
- SC Freiburg 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.4%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Augsburg
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Freiburg
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.