FC Schalke 04 0:0 SV 07 Elversberg: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 Home 1.01 xG · 13 shots

SV 07 Elversberg Away 1.01 xG · 11 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

FC Schalke 04 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Schalke 04's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.99 projected (−0.98). SV 07 Elversberg produced 1.01 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.52).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Schalke 04: 48%
Draw: 25% What happened
SV 07 Elversberg: 27%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Schalke 04 1.99 1.01 -0.98

SV 07 Elversberg 1.53 1.01 -0.52

FC Schalke 04 produced 0.98 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Schalke 04 SV 07 Elversberg

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 1; 1
Inside the box: 11; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.59; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.59; 0.33
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.20 for FC Schalke 04 and 1.02 for SV 07 Elversberg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.20 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Schalke 04
SV 07 Elversberg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Schalke 04

1.42 xG created 2.47 xGA

L 1.54 created, 3.52 conceded against FC Augsburg
D 0.21 created, 1.94 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.52 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin

SV 07 Elversberg

1.51 xG created 2.36 xGA

W 1.27 created, 1.88 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 2.31 created, 2.36 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.94 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Bayern München

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Schalke 04 against SV 07 Elversberg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+8.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.44	+5.2%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	2.25	+4.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+2.8%	Lost
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals	1.67	+2.5%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg to score	1.25	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Schalke 04	47.6%	47.3%	+0.2 pp	2.10
Draw	25.1%	25.6%	−0.5 pp	3.98
SV 07 Elversberg	27.3%	27.1%	+0.2 pp	3.66

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Schalke 04 to score	88.5%	84.2%	+4.3 pp	1.13
FC Schalke 04 not to score	11.5%	15.8%	−4.3 pp	8.71
SV 07 Elversberg to score	80.9%	75.0%	+5.9 pp	1.24
SV 07 Elversberg not to score	19.1%	25.0%	−5.9 pp	5.24
Both teams to score	72.8%	64.5%	+8.3 pp	1.37
Both teams not to score	27.2%	35.5%	−8.3 pp	3.68
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals	61.5%	55.7%	+5.7 pp	1.63
FC Schalke 04 at most 1 goal	38.5%	44.3%	−5.7 pp	2.60
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	46.6%	41.1%	+5.5 pp	2.15
SV 07 Elversberg at most 1 goal	53.4%	58.9%	−5.5 pp	1.87
Over 1.5 goals	89.9%	82.8%	+7.1 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	10.1%	17.2%	−7.1 pp	9.92
Over 2.5 goals	70.6%	62.0%	+8.6 pp	1.42
Under 2.5 goals	29.4%	38.0%	−8.6 pp	3.40

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Schalke 04 sample: 3 matches
SV 07 Elversberg sample: 3 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

FC Schalke 04 has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
SV 07 Elversberg has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.