1. FC Union Berlin 1:3 FC Schalke 04: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

1. FC Union Berlin Home 1.95 xG · 21 shots

FC Schalke 04 Away 2.52 xG · 19 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

1. FC Union Berlin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. FC Schalke 04 won 3–1. The biggest difference was FC Schalke 04's attack: 2.52 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.35).

Goals

25' Robin Gosens FC Schalke 04 · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
46' Adil Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 · 0.09 xG chance 0–2
90' Tim Skarke 1. FC Union Berlin · 0.54 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Maximilian Wöber FC Schalke 04 · 0.27 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

1. FC Union Berlin: 50%
Draw: 27%
FC Schalke 04: 23% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

1. FC Union Berlin 1.75 1.95 +0.20

FC Schalke 04 1.17 2.52 +1.35

FC Schalke 04 produced 1.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

1. FC Union Berlin FC Schalke 04

Shots: 21; 19
On target: 8; 9
Inside the box: 17; 11
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.01; 2.00
Set-piece xG: 1.02; 0.47
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.03 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 2.45 for FC Schalke 04.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

40 shots · 4.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FC Union Berlin
FC Schalke 04
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FC Union Berlin

1.66 xG created 2.17 xGA

L 0.19 created, 4.49 conceded against RB Leipzig
D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 2.68 created, 1.57 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 3.68 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Augsburg
D 1.84 created, 1.47 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
L 0.39 created, 3.11 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Schalke 04

0.88 xG created 2.73 xGA

L 1.54 created, 3.52 conceded against FC Augsburg
D 0.21 created, 1.94 conceded against FC Bayern München

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on 1. FC Union Berlin against FC Schalke 04 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
1. FC Union Berlin to win	2.45	+22.5%	Lost
FC Schalke 04 not to score	3.75	+6.3%	Lost
FC Schalke 04 at most 1 goal	1.57	+5.3%	Lost
1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals	1.91	+3.3%	Lost
1. FC Union Berlin to score	1.18	+0.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
1. FC Union Berlin	50.0%	38.8%	+11.2 pp	2.00
Draw	27.4%	27.2%	+0.3 pp	3.64
FC Schalke 04	22.6%	34.0%	−11.4 pp	4.43

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
1. FC Union Berlin to score	85.0%	79.2%	+5.8 pp	1.18
1. FC Union Berlin not to score	15.0%	20.8%	−5.8 pp	6.66
FC Schalke 04 to score	71.7%	75.0%	−3.3 pp	1.40
FC Schalke 04 not to score	28.3%	25.0%	+3.3 pp	3.53
Both teams to score	62.5%	60.8%	+1.7 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.5%	39.2%	−1.7 pp	2.66
1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals	54.1%	48.5%	+5.6 pp	1.85
1. FC Union Berlin at most 1 goal	45.9%	51.5%	−5.6 pp	2.18
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals	33.0%	41.1%	−8.2 pp	3.03
FC Schalke 04 at most 1 goal	67.0%	58.9%	+8.2 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	82.7%	78.9%	+3.8 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.3%	21.1%	−3.8 pp	5.79
Over 2.5 goals	57.5%	56.9%	+0.7 pp	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.5%	43.1%	−0.7 pp	2.36

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
1. FC Union Berlin sample: 20 matches
FC Schalke 04 sample: 2 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Schalke 04 has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.