Friday, 23/10/2026 at 21:00
Full timeBolton Wanderers 1:5 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Middlesbrough's attack: 4.17 xG against 1.71 projected (+2.46).
Goals
- 13' Aidan Morris Middlesbrough · 0.86 xG chance 0–1
- 31' Will Lankshear Middlesbrough · 0.65 xG chance 0–2
- 39' Lewis Brunt (o.g.) Middlesbrough 0–3
- 45' Theo Bair Bolton Wanderers · 0.18 xG chance 1–3
- 73' Amario Cozier-Duberry Middlesbrough · 0.17 xG chance 1–4
- 78' Will Lankshear Middlesbrough · 0.57 xG chance 1–5
The model against the result
- Bolton Wanderers
- 23%
- Draw
- 28%
- Middlesbrough
- 49% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Middlesbrough produced 2.46 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 32
- On target
- 4
- 12
- Inside the box
- 7
- 20
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.88
- 3.22
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 1.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.91 for Bolton Wanderers and 4.17 for Middlesbrough.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
44 shots · 5.15 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Bolton Wanderers
- Middlesbrough
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.52 xG created 1.59 xGA
- L 1.56 created, 2.22 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
1.99 xG created 1.12 xGA
- W 2.07 created, 1.62 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall
- D 2.14 created, 1.23 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 0.90 created, 0.68 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 2.57 created, 0.65 conceded against Stoke City
- D 2.71 created, 0.85 conceded against Cardiff City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough not to score | 8.00 | +24.8% | Lost |
| Middlesbrough at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +23.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +20.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +20.5% | Lost |
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 5.00 | +14.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +8.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | 22.9% | 18.6% | +4.3 pp | 4.38 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 21.4% | +6.4 pp | 3.58 |
| Middlesbrough | 49.2% | 60.0% | −10.7 pp | 2.03 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers to score | 71.2% | 68.7% | +2.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Bolton Wanderers not to score | 28.8% | 31.3% | −2.5 pp | 3.47 |
| Middlesbrough to score | 84.4% | 88.1% | −3.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Middlesbrough not to score | 15.6% | 11.9% | +3.7 pp | 6.41 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 62.5% | −0.8 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.3% | 37.5% | +0.8 pp | 2.61 |
| Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals | 32.4% | 33.7% | −1.3 pp | 3.08 |
| Bolton Wanderers at most 1 goal | 67.6% | 66.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.48 |
| Middlesbrough 2+ goals | 52.8% | 64.5% | −11.7 pp | 1.89 |
| Middlesbrough at most 1 goal | 47.2% | 35.5% | +11.7 pp | 2.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | 84.2% | −2.2 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.0% | 15.8% | +2.2 pp | 5.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 65.6% | −9.4 pp | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 34.4% | +9.4 pp | 2.28 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 11 matches
- Middlesbrough sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.