Lincoln City 4:1 Burnley: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Lincoln City Home 1.90 xG · 21 shots

Burnley Away 2.35 xG · 8 shots

41 The result went against the chances

Lincoln City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Burnley's attack: 2.35 xG against 1.25 projected (+1.10). Lincoln City produced 1.90 xG against 1.32 projected (+0.58).

Goals

39' Andreas Hountondji Burnley · 0.96 xG chance 0–1
45' Ben House Lincoln City · 0.55 xG chance 1–1
49' Mikkel Ladefoged Lincoln City · 0.13 xG chance 2–1
57' Dom Jefferies Lincoln City · 0.06 xG chance 3–1
67' Mikkel Ladefoged Lincoln City · 0.26 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lincoln City: 36% What happened
Draw: 31%
Burnley: 33%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lincoln City 1.32 1.90 +0.58

Burnley 1.25 2.35 +1.10

Burnley produced 1.10 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lincoln City Burnley

Shots: 21; 8
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.30
Open play xG: 0.96; 0.53
Set-piece xG: 1.01; 1.08
Penalties: 0; 1

Lincoln City's shots add up to 1.97 xG and Burnley's to 2.43; the published figures are 1.90 and 2.35.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 4.39 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Lincoln City
Burnley
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lincoln City

0.96 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Preston North End
W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall

Burnley

1.28 xG created 1.72 xGA

D 1.50 created, 1.35 conceded against Wrexham
L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 qualified edges flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lincoln City against Burnley before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+6.3%	Lost
Burnley at most 1 goal	1.57	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lincoln City	36.0%	35.1%	+1.0 pp	2.78
Draw	31.3%	27.8%	+3.4 pp	3.20
Burnley	32.7%	37.1%	−4.4 pp	3.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lincoln City to score	75.9%	73.1%	+2.8 pp	1.32
Lincoln City not to score	24.1%	26.9%	−2.8 pp	4.16
Burnley to score	74.3%	75.0%	−0.7 pp	1.35
Burnley not to score	25.7%	25.0%	+0.7 pp	3.89
Both teams to score	58.3%	55.7%	+2.5 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.7%	44.3%	−2.5 pp	2.40
Lincoln City 2+ goals	38.8%	39.2%	−0.4 pp	2.58
Lincoln City at most 1 goal	61.2%	60.8%	+0.4 pp	1.63
Burnley 2+ goals	36.3%	41.1%	−4.9 pp	2.76
Burnley at most 1 goal	63.7%	58.9%	+4.9 pp	1.57
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	74.5%	+2.5 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	25.5%	−2.5 pp	4.34
Over 2.5 goals	48.5%	50.0%	−1.5 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.5%	50.0%	+1.5 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lincoln City sample: 11 matches
Burnley sample: 11 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.