Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:30
Full timeSheffield United 1:1 Derby County
Sheffield United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Sheffield United's attack: 2.47 xG against 1.30 projected (+1.17).
Goals
- 37' Bobby Clark Derby County · 0.44 xG chance 0–1
- 79' Patrick Bamford Sheffield United · 0.79 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Sheffield United
- 37%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Derby County
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sheffield United produced 1.17 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 25
- 11
- On target
- 10
- 4
- Inside the box
- 18
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.58
- 0.97
- Set-piece xG
- 2.05
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.67 for Sheffield United and 1.13 for Derby County.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
36 shots · 3.76 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Sheffield United
- Derby County
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.94 xG created 1.31 xGA
- W 0.66 created, 1.62 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
- W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 2.01 created, 2.22 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.18 created, 0.50 conceded against Bristol City
1.10 xG created 1.26 xGA
- L 1.27 created, 0.38 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | 4.75 | +51.6% | Lost |
| Sheffield United not to score | 5.50 | +34.8% | Lost |
| Sheffield United at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +23.6% | Won |
| Draw | 3.70 | +16.9% | Won |
| Derby County 2+ goals | 3.25 | +12.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +11.4% | Won |
| Derby County to score | 1.44 | +5.5% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +4.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | 36.5% | 54.6% | −18.1 pp | 2.74 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 25.5% | +6.1 pp | 3.17 |
| Derby County | 31.9% | 19.9% | +12.1 pp | 3.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United to score | 75.5% | 82.8% | −7.3 pp | 1.32 |
| Sheffield United not to score | 24.5% | 17.2% | +7.3 pp | 4.08 |
| Derby County to score | 73.1% | 64.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.37 |
| Derby County not to score | 26.9% | 35.5% | −8.6 pp | 3.71 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 55.7% | +1.3 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 44.3% | −1.3 pp | 2.33 |
| Sheffield United 2+ goals | 38.2% | 53.7% | −15.5 pp | 2.62 |
| Sheffield United at most 1 goal | 61.8% | 46.3% | +15.5 pp | 1.62 |
| Derby County 2+ goals | 34.7% | 29.1% | +5.6 pp | 2.88 |
| Derby County at most 1 goal | 65.3% | 70.9% | −5.6 pp | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 78.0% | −2.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 22.0% | +2.2 pp | 4.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 54.9% | −7.9 pp | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 45.1% | +7.9 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.