AEL Limassol 2:0 Anorthosis Famagusta: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

AEL Limassol Home 1.73 xG

Anorthosis Famagusta Away 0.51 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

AEL Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Anorthosis Famagusta's attack: 0.51 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.48). AEL Limassol produced 1.73 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.47).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AEL Limassol: 41% What happened
Draw: 33%
Anorthosis Famagusta: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AEL Limassol 1.26 1.73 +0.47

Anorthosis Famagusta 0.99 0.51 -0.48

Anorthosis Famagusta produced 0.48 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AEL Limassol Anorthosis Famagusta

Shots: 15; 7
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 8; 5
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AEL Limassol

1.45 xG created 1.73 xGA

D 0.89 created, 1.55 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
W 1.44 created, 1.94 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 2.63 created, 1.17 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
D 1.84 created, 1.13 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 1.12 created, 0.97 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 0.80 created, 3.63 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas

Anorthosis Famagusta

1.38 xG created 1.53 xGA

W 1.29 created, 0.80 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
L 0.40 created, 1.74 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
D 1.03 created, 1.25 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 1.80 created, 0.05 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
W 3.25 created, 1.47 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 0.49 created, 3.88 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AEL Limassol: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AEL Limassol against Anorthosis Famagusta before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.25	+9.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.70	+8.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEL Limassol	40.5%	46.1%	−5.6 pp	2.47
Draw	33.1%	29.1%	+4.0 pp	3.02
Anorthosis Famagusta	26.4%	24.9%	+1.5 pp	3.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 1.5 goals	70.1%	70.9%	−0.8 pp	1.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.9%	29.1%	+0.8 pp	3.35
Over 2.5 goals	39.6%	44.7%	−5.1 pp	2.52
Under 2.5 goals	60.4%	55.3%	+5.1 pp	1.66

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AEL Limassol sample: 20 matches
Anorthosis Famagusta sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.