Gameweek 6

Every player the model rates for this round, itemised into what he is expected to do rather than only what he is worth — and the squad the budget and the club limit allow.

This is the best fifteen money can buy. For advice about the squad you actually own →

Deadline: 12:00 in 6d 13h
Projected: 50.7

Fixture difficulty

Each club’s chance of winning this round’s fixture less its chance of losing it, in five bands.

1 Win likelier than loss by 50+ points
2 By 20 to 50 points
3 Within 20 either way
4 Loss likelier by 20 to 50
5 Loss likelier by 50+

What the numbers mean

Worked through on this round's most one-sided fixture: the model gives Manchester United 57% to beat Tottenham Hotspur and 17% to lose, so the win is 40 percentage points the likelier — band 2. The other half of a fixture is the same subtraction the other way round, which puts Tottenham Hotspur on band 4. Hover any badge to see the figures behind it.

Budget 97.7m · 2.3m left 97.7m of 100.0m · 2.3m left

Fantasy data 01/10 11:39 Prices, ownership and fitness flags read from Fantasy 01/10 11:39

Model coverage 54% on this site's data 54% matched to this site's data

The rest are projected from Fantasy's own figures — those rows carry a dotted underline in the table.

Suggested squad

Formation 4-4-2 · 97.7m Formation 4-4-2 · captain on the highest projection, vice on the second

Raya ARS · LEE (H) 6.1m 4.07

Raya ARS · LEE (H) 4.07

V Thomas COV · NEW (H) 4.0m 4.42

V Thomas COV · NEW (H) 4.42

Gabriel ARS · LEE (H) 8.0m 4.28

Gabriel ARS · LEE (H) 4.28

Calafiori ARS · LEE (H) 5.8m 4.09

Calafiori ARS · LEE (H) 4.09

Egan HUL · EVE (H) 4.1m 4.01

Egan HUL · EVE (H) 4.01

B.Fernandes MUN · TOT (H) 11.9m 4.39

B.Fernandes MUN · TOT (H) 4.39

Mbeumo MUN · TOT (H) 7.9m 4.36

Mbeumo MUN · TOT (H) 4.36

Scott BOU · CHE (A) 6.1m 4.00

Scott BOU · CHE (A) 4.00

E.Le Fée SUN · BHA (H) 5.7m 3.98

E.Le Fée SUN · BHA (H) 3.98

C Haaland MCI · LIV (A) 15.6m 4.56

C Haaland MCI · LIV (A) 4.56

Barry EVE · HUL (A) 5.7m 4.00

Barry EVE · HUL (A) 4.00

Goalkeepers 4.1 pts

David Raya Martín ARS · LEE (H) · 6.1m 4.07

David Raya Martín ARS · LEE (H) 6.1m 4.07

Defenders 16.8 pts

V Bobby Thomas COV · NEW (H) · 4.0m 4.42

V Bobby Thomas COV · NEW (H) 4.0m 4.42

Gabriel Magalhães ARS · LEE (H) · 8.0m 4.28

Gabriel Magalhães ARS · LEE (H) 8.0m 4.28

Riccardo Calafiori ARS · LEE (H) · 5.8m 4.09

Riccardo Calafiori ARS · LEE (H) 5.8m 4.09

John Egan HUL · EVE (H) · 4.1m 4.01

John Egan HUL · EVE (H) 4.1m 4.01

Midfielders 16.7 pts

Bruno Fernandes MUN · TOT (H) · 11.9m 4.39

Bruno Fernandes MUN · TOT (H) 11.9m 4.39

Bryan Mbeumo MUN · TOT (H) · 7.9m 4.36

Bryan Mbeumo MUN · TOT (H) 7.9m 4.36

Alex Scott BOU · CHE (A) · 6.1m 4.00

Alex Scott BOU · CHE (A) 6.1m 4.00

Enzo Le Fée SUN · BHA (H) · 5.7m 3.98

Enzo Le Fée SUN · BHA (H) 5.7m 3.98

Forwards 8.6 pts

C Erling Haaland MCI · LIV (A) · 15.6m 4.56

C Erling Haaland MCI · LIV (A) 15.6m 4.56

Thierno Barry EVE · HUL (A) · 5.7m 4.00

Thierno Barry EVE · HUL (A) 5.7m 4.00

Bench order matters — the first eligible replaces a non-starter

GKP Forster BOU · CHE (A) · 4.0m 8% start 0.57

1. FWD Walle Egeli IPS · FUL (H) · 4.5m 8% start 0.86

2. MID Hughes CRY · NFO (H) · 4.4m 8% start 0.72

3. DEF Kipré IPS · FUL (H) · 3.9m 8% start 0.49

Every candidate

Showing 20 of 487 — ranked by the model's projection for this gameweek.

Attack — goals and assists, rescaled to this fixture
Defence — the clean sheet, goals conceded, saves, defensive contribution
In the total and in no bar — the appearance, the bonus and the cards
PEN His club's first-choice penalty taker
PICK In the starting eleven this page suggests, not on its bench
Projected from Fantasy's figures alone

How to read a row

Worked through on this round's best projection: Bukayo Saka is projected at 4.57 points. 1.99 of that is attacking and 0.41 is defending, and those two are his bar — drawn against one scale the whole table shares, so a longer bar is a bigger number rather than a different one. The remaining 2.17 is in no bar at all: 1.87 for the appearance itself, 0.41 in bonus and −0.10 for cards. What each half is worth depends on the position as much as on the fixture — the same clean sheet pays a defender four points and a midfielder one.

All 60 GKP 7 DEF 20 MID 23 FWD 10

Player Pos Fixture Price Start Attack · defence Points

1 Bukayo Saka PEN min 77 xG 0.31 xA 0.14 CS 41% conc 0.20 MID Arsenal vs Leeds United 9.5m 92% 4.57 1 Bukayo Saka PEN 4.57 MID ARS · LEE (H) · 9.5m 92% start min 77 xG 0.31 xA 0.14 CS 41% conc 0.20

2 Erling Haaland PEN PICK min 83 xG 0.45 xA 0.06 CS 19% conc 0.53 FWD Liverpool vs Manchester City 15.6m 92% 4.56 2 Erling Haaland PEN PICK 4.56 FWD MCI · LIV (A) · 15.6m 92% start min 83 xG 0.45 xA 0.06 CS 19% conc 0.53

3 Bobby Thomas PICK min 81 xG 0.10 xA 0.07 CS 28% conc 0.35 DEF Coventry City vs Newcastle United 4.0m 92% 4.42 3 Bobby Thomas PICK 4.42 DEF COV · NEW (H) · 4.0m 92% start min 81 xG 0.10 xA 0.07 CS 28% conc 0.35

4 Bruno Fernandes PEN PICK min 83 xG 0.28 xA 0.17 CS 34% conc 0.27 MID Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur 11.9m 92% 4.39 4 Bruno Fernandes PEN PICK 4.39 MID MUN · TOT (H) · 11.9m 92% start min 83 xG 0.28 xA 0.17 CS 34% conc 0.27

5 Bryan Mbeumo PICK min 83 xG 0.31 xA 0.14 CS 34% conc 0.27 MID Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur 7.9m 92% 4.36 5 Bryan Mbeumo PICK 4.36 MID MUN · TOT (H) · 7.9m 92% start min 83 xG 0.31 xA 0.14 CS 34% conc 0.27

6 Gabriel Magalhães PICK min 83 xG 0.08 xA 0.05 CS 41% conc 0.20 DEF Arsenal vs Leeds United 8.0m 92% 4.28 6 Gabriel Magalhães PICK 4.28 DEF ARS · LEE (H) · 8.0m 92% start min 83 xG 0.08 xA 0.05 CS 41% conc 0.20

7 Riccardo Calafiori PICK min 77 xG 0.09 xA 0.08 CS 41% conc 0.20 DEF Arsenal vs Leeds United 5.8m 92% 4.09 7 Riccardo Calafiori PICK 4.09 DEF ARS · LEE (H) · 5.8m 92% start min 77 xG 0.09 xA 0.08 CS 41% conc 0.20

8 David Raya Martín PICK min 83 xG 0.00 xA 0.00 CS 41% conc 0.20 GKP Arsenal vs Leeds United 6.1m 92% 4.07 8 David Raya Martín PICK 4.07 GKP ARS · LEE (H) · 6.1m 92% start min 83 xG 0.00 xA 0.00 CS 41% conc 0.20

9 John Egan PICK min 81 xG 0.05 xA 0.04 CS 25% conc 0.39 DEF Hull City vs Everton 4.1m 92% 4.01 9 John Egan PICK 4.01 DEF HUL · EVE (H) · 4.1m 92% start min 81 xG 0.05 xA 0.04 CS 25% conc 0.39

10 Alex Scott PICK min 82 xG 0.13 xA 0.09 CS 21% conc 0.49 MID Chelsea vs Bournemouth 6.1m 92% 4.00 10 Alex Scott PICK 4.00 MID BOU · CHE (A) · 6.1m 92% start min 82 xG 0.13 xA 0.09 CS 21% conc 0.49

11 Thierno Barry PEN PICK min 77 xG 0.43 xA 0.04 CS 21% conc 0.47 FWD Hull City vs Everton 5.7m 92% 4.00 11 Thierno Barry PEN PICK 4.00 FWD EVE · HUL (A) · 5.7m 92% start min 77 xG 0.43 xA 0.04 CS 21% conc 0.47

12 Enzo Le Fée PICK min 81 xG 0.25 xA 0.18 CS 21% conc 0.49 MID Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion 5.7m 92% 3.98 12 Enzo Le Fée PICK 3.98 MID SUN · BHA (H) · 5.7m 92% start min 81 xG 0.25 xA 0.18 CS 21% conc 0.49

13 Vitaly Janelt min 83 xG 0.13 xA 0.10 CS 21% conc 0.48 MID Aston Villa vs Brentford 5.0m 92% 3.97 13 Vitaly Janelt 3.97 MID BRE · AVL (A) · 5.0m 92% start min 83 xG 0.13 xA 0.10 CS 21% conc 0.48

14 Granit Xhaka min 83 xG 0.12 xA 0.18 CS 21% conc 0.49 MID Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion 5.5m 92% 3.95 14 Granit Xhaka 3.95 MID SUN · BHA (H) · 5.5m 92% start min 83 xG 0.12 xA 0.18 CS 21% conc 0.49

15 Igor Thiago PEN min 82 xG 0.46 xA 0.05 CS 21% conc 0.48 FWD Aston Villa vs Brentford 7.8m 92% 3.92 15 Igor Thiago PEN 3.92 FWD BRE · AVL (A) · 7.8m 92% start min 82 xG 0.46 xA 0.05 CS 21% conc 0.48

16 Marcus Tavernier min 78 xG 0.18 xA 0.12 CS 21% conc 0.49 MID Chelsea vs Bournemouth 6.1m 92% 3.90 16 Marcus Tavernier 3.90 MID BOU · CHE (A) · 6.1m 92% start min 78 xG 0.18 xA 0.12 CS 21% conc 0.49

17 James Tarkowski min 83 xG 0.05 xA 0.04 CS 21% conc 0.47 DEF Hull City vs Everton 6.2m 92% 3.90 17 James Tarkowski 3.90 DEF EVE · HUL (A) · 6.2m 92% start min 83 xG 0.05 xA 0.04 CS 21% conc 0.47

18 Martin Ødegaard min 70 xG 0.16 xA 0.16 CS 41% conc 0.20 MID Arsenal vs Leeds United 6.8m 92% 3.90 18 Martin Ødegaard 3.90 MID ARS · LEE (H) · 6.8m 92% start min 70 xG 0.16 xA 0.16 CS 41% conc 0.20

19 Morgan Gibbs-White PEN min 83 xG 0.18 xA 0.16 CS 24% conc 0.42 MID Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 8.0m 92% 3.90 19 Morgan Gibbs-White PEN 3.90 MID NFO · CRY (A) · 8.0m 92% start min 83 xG 0.18 xA 0.16 CS 24% conc 0.42

20 Gonzalo García PEN min 78 xG 0.41 xA 0.07 CS 18% conc 0.56 FWD Ipswich Town vs Fulham 6.0m 92% 3.89 20 Gonzalo García PEN 3.89 FWD FUL · IPS (A) · 6.0m 92% start min 78 xG 0.41 xA 0.07 CS 18% conc 0.56

Points are the model's expected Fantasy return for this fixture — the attack and defence split shows where they come from. Start % is the chance of appearing, so a high projection on a low start is a bench risk, not a bargain.

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Where the numbers come from

The model, not the feed

Clean-sheet and goals-conceded points come from this site's own model: a pair of expected-goal rates fitted for each fixture, run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix, so a clean sheet is priced as the probability of one rather than as an average. Goals and assists use Fantasy's own per-90 rates, rescaled to the fixture and shrunk towards the position average in proportion to how few minutes a player has behind him.

The largest source of error

Nobody publishes team sheets in advance. The start probability is estimated from recent rounds and the game's own fitness flags, and it is the largest source of error on this page — which is why it is shown beside every player rather than folded into his total.

The roughest term

Bonus is the roughest term here. It depends on finishing in the top three of a match's bonus-point ranking, which is a position among twenty-two players rather than a rate, so it is estimated from a player's own history and nothing more.