ALS Omonia 2:2 Karmiotissa Polemidion: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

ALS Omonia Home 2.27 xG

Karmiotissa Polemidion Away 1.45 xG

22 ALS Omonia had the better chances, but it finished level

ALS Omonia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was ALS Omonia's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.90). Karmiotissa Polemidion produced 1.45 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

ALS Omonia: 40%
Draw: 31% What happened
Karmiotissa Polemidion: 29%

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

ALS Omonia 1.37 2.27 +0.90

Karmiotissa Polemidion 1.14 1.45 +0.31

ALS Omonia produced 0.90 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

ALS Omonia Karmiotissa Polemidion

Shots: 22; 9
On target: 9; 7
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

ALS Omonia

0.87 xG created 1.78 xGA

W 0.87 created, 1.78 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

Karmiotissa Polemidion

2.20 xG created 2.78 xGA

L 2.20 created, 2.78 conceded against Pafos FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
ALS Omonia sample: 0 matches
Karmiotissa Polemidion sample: 0 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for ALS Omonia — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
There is not a single played match in the database for Karmiotissa Polemidion — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.