Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeAris Limassol 2:2 Apollon Limassol
Aris Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Aris Limassol's attack: 2.39 xG against 1.35 projected (+1.04). Apollon Limassol produced 1.60 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.47).
The model against the result
- Aris Limassol
- 40%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Apollon Limassol
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Aris Limassol produced 1.04 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 9
- On target
- 9
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.18
Recent form
1.44 xG created 1.45 xGA
- W 2.67 created, 1.04 conceded against Apollon Limassol
- L 0.70 created, 0.83 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- L 0.64 created, 3.08 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
- W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
- L 0.85 created, 1.34 conceded against Pafos FC
- L 2.30 created, 1.14 conceded against Apollon Limassol
1.17 xG created 1.55 xGA
- L 1.04 created, 2.67 conceded against Aris Limassol
- L 1.19 created, 2.16 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
- W 0.89 created, 0.93 conceded against Pafos FC
- L 1.38 created, 1.13 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- W 1.38 created, 0.10 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
- W 1.14 created, 2.30 conceded against Aris Limassol
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +13.8% | Lost |
| Apollon Limassol not to score | 3.75 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Apollon Limassol at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +10.9% | Lost |
| Aris Limassol to win | 2.63 | +4.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +4.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Limassol | 39.8% | 35.6% | +4.2 pp | 2.51 |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.4% | +3.2 pp | 3.16 |
| Apollon Limassol | 28.6% | 36.0% | −7.4 pp | 3.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Limassol to score | 76.7% | 75.0% | +1.7 pp | 1.30 |
| Aris Limassol not to score | 23.3% | 25.0% | −1.7 pp | 4.29 |
| Apollon Limassol to score | 70.3% | 75.0% | −4.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Apollon Limassol not to score | 29.7% | 25.0% | +4.7 pp | 3.37 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 57.7% | −1.9 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.2% | 42.3% | +1.9 pp | 2.26 |
| Aris Limassol 2+ goals | 39.9% | 42.3% | −2.5 pp | 2.51 |
| Aris Limassol at most 1 goal | 60.1% | 57.7% | +2.5 pp | 1.66 |
| Apollon Limassol 2+ goals | 31.3% | 42.3% | −11.0 pp | 3.19 |
| Apollon Limassol at most 1 goal | 68.7% | 57.7% | +11.0 pp | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | 75.4% | −0.5 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 24.6% | +0.5 pp | 3.99 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 55.7% | −9.9 pp | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 44.3% | +9.9 pp | 1.85 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Apollon Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.