Friday, 28/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeOlympiakos Nicosia 3:3 Nea Salamina Famagusta
Olympiakos Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Olympiakos Nicosia's attack: 1.65 xG against 1.18 projected (+0.47). Nea Salamina Famagusta produced 1.49 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.35).
The model against the result
- Olympiakos Nicosia
- 34%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 33%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Olympiakos Nicosia produced 0.47 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 13
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.11
Recent form
1.40 xG created 1.19 xGA
- L 0.31 created, 1.59 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- W 1.52 created, 0.89 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
- L 1.19 created, 2.24 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
- W 0.52 created, 0.79 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
- W 0.97 created, 1.12 conceded against AEL Limassol
- W 3.88 created, 0.49 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +8.9% | Won |
| Olympiakos Nicosia at most 1 goal | 1.62 | +7.6% | Lost |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta to win | 3.25 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Olympiakos Nicosia not to score | 3.75 | +5.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Nicosia | 34.4% | 42.7% | −8.2 pp | 2.90 |
| Draw | 33.0% | 28.4% | +4.5 pp | 3.03 |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta | 32.6% | 28.9% | +3.7 pp | 3.07 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Nicosia to score | 72.0% | 75.0% | −3.0 pp | 1.39 |
| Olympiakos Nicosia not to score | 28.0% | 25.0% | +3.0 pp | 3.57 |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta to score | 70.9% | 66.3% | +4.6 pp | 1.41 |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta not to score | 29.1% | 33.7% | −4.6 pp | 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 pp | 1.89 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.0% | 48.5% | −1.5 pp | 2.13 |
| Olympiakos Nicosia 2+ goals | 33.4% | 42.3% | −9.0 pp | 3.00 |
| Olympiakos Nicosia at most 1 goal | 66.6% | 57.7% | +9.0 pp | 1.50 |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta 2+ goals | 32.0% | 31.3% | +0.8 pp | 3.12 |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta at most 1 goal | 68.0% | 68.7% | −0.8 pp | 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | 70.9% | +0.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 29.1% | −0.8 pp | 3.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 46.1% | −4.5 pp | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 53.9% | +4.5 pp | 1.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympiakos Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Nea Salamina Famagusta sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Nea Salamina Famagusta — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.