xgEdge

Expected goals

Baník Ostrava expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Czech First League · after 9 matches · updated 4 Oct

Baník Ostrava's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Baník Ostrava xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.34 xG per match
#7/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.38
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.66
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 1.66
#4 Mladá Boleslav 1.45
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.43
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.39
#7 Baník Ostrava 1.34
#8 FK Pardubice 1.34
#9 FK Jablonec 1.32
#10 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.24
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.23
#12 FK Teplice 1.20
#13 SK Líšeň 1.05
#14 FC Hradec Králové 1.03
#15 1. FC Slovácko 0.92
#16 FC Zlín 0.87
League avg
1.34
Total
12.05 9 matches
Defence
1.89 xGA per match
#15/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.86
#2 FK Jablonec 1.01
#3 SK Slavia Praha 1.02
#4 FC Hradec Králové 1.05
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.10
#6 FK Pardubice 1.20
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.21
#8 AC Sparta Praha 1.25
#9 FK Teplice 1.28
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.37
#11 SK Líšeň 1.42
#12 FC Zlín 1.44
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.52
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.88
#15 Baník Ostrava 1.89
#16 Mladá Boleslav 2.06
League avg
1.34
Total
17.00 9 matches
xG difference
-0.55 xGD per match
#13/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.36
#2 FC Slovan Liberec +0.80
#3 AC Sparta Praha +0.41
#4 Viktoria Plzeň +0.32
#5 FK Jablonec +0.31
#6 FK Pardubice +0.14
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.02
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.02
#9 FC Hradec Králové -0.02
#10 FK Teplice -0.08
#11 FC Zbrojovka Brno -0.28
#12 SK Líšeň -0.37
#13 Baník Ostrava -0.55
#14 FC Zlín -0.57
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.62
#16 1. FC Slovácko -0.96
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.95 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.02 xPts per match
#14/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.11
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 1.90
#3 AC Sparta Praha 1.68
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 1.61
#5 FK Jablonec 1.59
#6 FK Pardubice 1.46
#7 FC Hradec Králové 1.39
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.39
#9 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.33
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.31
#11 FK Teplice 1.30
#12 SK Líšeň 1.11
#13 Mladá Boleslav 1.03
#14 Baník Ostrava 1.02
#15 FC Zlín 0.90
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
9.19 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Baník Ostrava's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Czech First League. They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.55 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 7 goals are 5.05 below 12.05 xG, while 10 points are 0.81 above 9.19 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.81 xG from penalties
7 12.05 -5.05 scored 5.05 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
17 17.00 +0.00 level with xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 9.19 +0.81 0.81 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Baník Ostrava are 5.05 goals below their xG after 9 matches.

Goals
7
xG
12.05
Gap
-5.05
Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 29/08 Sun 06/09 Wed 09/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.01 -0.71 -0.51 -1.74 -0.98 -3.42 -4.27 -4.48 -5.05 -0.01 -0.70 +0.20 -1.23 +0.76 -2.44 -0.85 -0.21 -0.57 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Baník Ostrava: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 25/07 FC Zlín 1 1.01 -0.01 -0.01
Sat 01/08 SK Slavia Praha 0 0.70 -0.70 -0.71
Sun 09/08 FC Hradec Králové 1 0.80 +0.20 -0.51
Sun 16/08 SK Líšeň 1 2.23 -1.23 -1.74
Sat 29/08 SK Sigma Olomouc 1 0.24 +0.76 -0.98
Sun 06/09 Mladá Boleslav 0 2.44 -2.44 -3.42
Wed 09/09 FK Jablonec 0 0.85 -0.85 -4.27
Sun 13/09 FK Pardubice 1 1.21 -0.21 -4.48
Sat 19/09 1. FC Slovácko 2 2.57 -0.57 -5.05

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Baník Ostrava xG trend

Current form -0.50 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 9 matches. The worst was against FK Jablonec on Wed 09/09 (-2.02).

npxG · last 6
1.45
npxGA · last 6
1.95
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.24 Sat 25/07 -1.49 Sat 01/08 -1.59 Sun 09/08 +1.38 Sun 16/08 -0.40 Sat 29/08 -0.66 Sun 06/09 -2.02 Wed 09/09 -1.40 Sun 13/09 +0.11 Sat 19/09 -0.65 season avg
Baník Ostrava: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 25/07 FC Zlín 1.05 0.81 +0.24 +0.24
Sat 01/08 SK Slavia Praha 0.70 2.19 -1.49 -0.63
Sun 09/08 FC Hradec Králové 0.80 2.39 -1.59 -0.95
Sun 16/08 SK Líšeň 2.29 0.91 +1.38 -0.37
Sat 29/08 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.22 0.62 -0.40 -0.37
Sun 06/09 Mladá Boleslav 2.44 3.10 -0.66 -0.42
Wed 09/09 FK Jablonec 0.85 2.87 -2.02 -0.65
Sun 13/09 FK Pardubice 0.93 2.33 -1.40 -0.74
Sat 19/09 1. FC Slovácko 1.96 1.85 +0.11 -0.65

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.25 npxG and 1.90 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 16 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
number 14 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.10 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 16 hardest of 16

  1. 1. FC Slovácko Away −0.30
  2. FK Pardubice Home −0.03
  3. FK Jablonec Away +0.21
  4. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.38
  5. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.01
  6. SK Líšeň Home −0.32
  7. FC Hradec Králové Away −0.08
  8. SK Slavia Praha Home +0.82
  9. FC Zlín Away −0.45

Last 5

−0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 14 hardest of 16

  1. 1. FC Slovácko Away −0.30
  2. FK Pardubice Home −0.03
  3. FK Jablonec Away +0.21
  4. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.38
  5. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.01

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Baník Ostrava shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Baník Ostrava take 12.4 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #9 in Czech First League for volume and #8 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 19% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.4 shots per match
#9/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.3
#2 AC Sparta Praha 16.6
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 16.2
#4 FK Jablonec 15.7
#5 FK Teplice 14.5
#6 Viktoria Plzeň 14.0
#7 FK Pardubice 13.0
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 12.6
#9 Baník Ostrava 12.4
=10 FC Hradec Králové 12.0
=10 Mladá Boleslav 12.0
#12 FC Zlín 11.9
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 11.8
#14 1. FC Slovácko 11.0
#15 SK Sigma Olomouc 10.8
#16 SK Líšeň 9.8
League avg
13.2
Total
112 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#8/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.13
#2 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#3 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.11
#4 SK Líšeň 0.11
#5 FC Slovan Liberec 0.11
#6 FK Pardubice 0.10
#7 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.10
#8 Baník Ostrava 0.10
#9 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.09
#11 FK Jablonec 0.09
#12 FC Hradec Králové 0.09
#13 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#14 1. FC Slovácko 0.08
#15 FK Teplice 0.08
#16 FC Zlín 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
11.24 npxG from 112 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.7 shots per match
#13/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 10.7
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 10.8
#3 AC Sparta Praha 11.6
#4 FK Jablonec 11.7
#5 1. FC Slovácko 12.2
=6 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.4
=6 Viktoria Plzeň 12.4
#8 FC Zbrojovka Brno 13.0
#9 FK Pardubice 13.3
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.6
#11 FC Hradec Králové 13.9
#12 FK Teplice 14.6
#13 Baník Ostrava 14.7
#14 FC Zlín 14.9
#15 SK Líšeň 15.0
#16 Mladá Boleslav 17.8
League avg
13.2
Total
132 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#15/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.07
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.08
#3 FK Jablonec 0.08
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#5 FK Pardubice 0.09
#6 FC Zlín 0.09
#7 FK Teplice 0.09
#8 SK Líšeň 0.09
#9 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.09
#10 SK Slavia Praha 0.10
#11 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#12 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#13 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#14 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.12
#15 Baník Ostrava 0.13
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
17.07 npxGA from 132 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 69 of 112 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

77% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 101 of 132 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.2 of 11.3 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 3.8 of 17.0 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Baník Ostrava home and away xG

Baník Ostrava per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 5
xG / match 1.10 1.53
xGA / match 1.52 2.19
xGD / match -0.42 -0.65
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.03 1.01

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Baník Ostrava match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.46
xGA / match
2.14
xGD / match
-0.68
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 1. FC Slovácko A Best underlying xG 2.57 P xGA 1.77 xGD +0.80
  2. Sun 13/09 FK Pardubice H xG 1.21 xGA 2.33 xGD -1.12
  3. Wed 09/09 FK Jablonec A Weakest underlying xG 0.85 xGA 2.87 xGD -2.02
  4. Sun 06/09 Mladá Boleslav A xG 2.44 xGA 3.10 xGD -0.66
  5. Sat 29/08 SK Sigma Olomouc H xG 0.24 xGA 0.63 xGD -0.39

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.10. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Baník Ostrava in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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