xgEdge

Expected goals

Dukla Praha expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Czech First League · after 35 matches · updated 4 Oct

Dukla Praha's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Dukla Praha xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.96 xG per match
#16/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.24
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.84
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.74
#4 MFK Karviná 1.63
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.38
#6 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.36
=7 FC Slovan Liberec 1.36
=7 FK Jablonec 1.36
#9 Baník Ostrava 1.31
#10 FK Pardubice 1.26
#11 FC Hradec Králové 1.23
#12 Mladá Boleslav 1.20
#13 FK Teplice 1.19
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.16
#15 FC Zlín 1.14
#16 Dukla Praha 0.96
League avg
1.40
Total
33.49 35 matches
Defence
1.63 xGA per match
#14/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.82
#2 AC Sparta Praha 0.94
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.17
#4 FC Slovan Liberec 1.24
#5 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.28
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.32
#7 FK Jablonec 1.37
#8 FK Teplice 1.44
#9 1. FC Slovácko 1.49
#10 FC Hradec Králové 1.53
#11 FC Zlín 1.53
#12 Baník Ostrava 1.55
#13 FK Pardubice 1.55
#14 Dukla Praha 1.63
#15 MFK Karviná 1.72
#16 Mladá Boleslav 1.73
League avg
1.40
Total
57.20 35 matches
xG difference
-0.68 xGD per match
#16/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.41
#2 AC Sparta Praha +0.90
#3 Viktoria Plzeň +0.58
#4 FC Slovan Liberec +0.12
#5 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.09
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.06
#7 FK Jablonec -0.01
#8 MFK Karviná -0.08
#9 Baník Ostrava -0.24
#10 FK Teplice -0.25
#11 FC Hradec Králové -0.30
#12 FK Pardubice -0.30
#13 1. FC Slovácko -0.33
#14 FC Zlín -0.39
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.53
#16 Dukla Praha -0.68
League avg
0.00
Total
-23.71 35 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.90 xPts per match
#16/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.21
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.97
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.71
#4 FC Slovan Liberec 1.51
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.46
#6 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.42
#7 FK Jablonec 1.39
#8 MFK Karviná 1.34
#9 Baník Ostrava 1.29
#10 FK Teplice 1.21
#11 FC Hradec Králové 1.18
#12 1. FC Slovácko 1.18
#13 FK Pardubice 1.18
#14 FC Zlín 1.10
#15 Mladá Boleslav 1.07
#16 Dukla Praha 0.90
League avg
1.38
Total
31.52 vs 26 actual pts

What the xG says

Dukla Praha's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Czech First League. They rank #16 for xG difference at -0.68 per match, from the league's lowest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 23 goals are 10.49 below 33.49 xG, while 26 points are 5.52 below 31.52 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
23 33.49 -10.49 scored 10.49 fewer than xG outside normal variance
51 57.20 -6.20 conceded 6.20 fewer than xGA within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Dukla Praha are 10.49 goals below their xG after 35 matches.

Goals
23
xG
33.49
Gap
-10.49
Sat 19/07 Sat 26/07 Sun 03/08 Sat 09/08 Sat 16/08 Sun 24/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sun 21/09 Fri 26/09 Sat 04/10 Sun 19/10 Sat 25/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sat 29/11 Sat 06/12 Sun 14/12 Sat 31/01 Sun 08/02 Sat 14/02 Sun 22/02 Fri 27/02 Sat 07/03 Sat 14/03 Sat 04/04 Sun 12/04 Sat 18/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 09/05 Tue 12/05 Sat 16/05 Sat 23/05 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 -0.85 -0.97 -0.53 -0.84 -0.56 +0.89 +0.35 -0.53 -1.08 -1.20 -0.41 -0.97 -0.66 -1.26 -2.04 -1.67 -2.25 -2.03 -3.52 -3.83 -6.12 -6.79 -7.02 -7.59 -8.53 -7.88 -8.57 -8.47 -8.74 -7.18 -8.05 -8.70 -8.61 -9.50 -10.49 -0.85 -0.12 +0.44 -0.31 +0.28 +1.45 -0.54 -0.88 -0.55 -0.12 +0.79 -0.56 +0.31 -0.60 -0.78 +0.37 -0.58 +0.22 -1.49 -0.31 -2.29 -0.67 -0.23 -0.57 -0.94 +0.65 -0.69 +0.10 -0.27 +1.56 -0.87 -0.65 +0.09 -0.89 -0.99 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Dukla Praha: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 19/07 MFK Karviná 0 0.85 -0.85 -0.85
Sat 26/07 SK Sigma Olomouc 0 0.12 -0.12 -0.97
Sun 03/08 Baník Ostrava 1 0.56 +0.44 -0.53
Sat 09/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0 0.31 -0.31 -0.84
Sat 16/08 Viktoria Plzeň 2 1.72 +0.28 -0.56
Sun 24/08 AC Sparta Praha 2 0.55 +1.45 +0.89
Sat 30/08 FC Hradec Králové 1 1.54 -0.54 +0.35
Sat 13/09 FC Zlín 1 1.88 -0.88 -0.53
Sun 21/09 Bohemians Praha 1905 0 0.55 -0.55 -1.08
Fri 26/09 SK Slavia Praha 0 0.12 -0.12 -1.20
Sat 04/10 FK Teplice 1 0.21 +0.79 -0.41
Sun 19/10 FK Jablonec 0 0.56 -0.56 -0.97
Sat 25/10 1. FC Slovácko 1 0.69 +0.31 -0.66
Sat 01/11 FK Pardubice 1 1.60 -0.60 -1.26
Sat 08/11 Mladá Boleslav 0 0.78 -0.78 -2.04
Sat 22/11 SK Sigma Olomouc 2 1.63 +0.37 -1.67
Sat 29/11 Baník Ostrava 1 1.58 -0.58 -2.25
Sat 06/12 FC Slovan Liberec 1 0.78 +0.22 -2.03
Sun 14/12 Viktoria Plzeň 0 1.49 -1.49 -3.52
Sat 31/01 AC Sparta Praha 0 0.31 -0.31 -3.83
Sun 08/02 FC Hradec Králové 0 2.29 -2.29 -6.12
Sat 14/02 FC Zlín 0 0.67 -0.67 -6.79
Sun 22/02 Bohemians Praha 1905 0 0.23 -0.23 -7.02
Fri 27/02 SK Slavia Praha 0 0.57 -0.57 -7.59
Sat 07/03 FK Teplice 0 0.94 -0.94 -8.53
Sat 14/03 FK Jablonec 2 1.35 +0.65 -7.88
Sat 04/04 FK Pardubice 0 0.69 -0.69 -8.57
Sun 12/04 Mladá Boleslav 1 0.90 +0.10 -8.47
Sat 18/04 MFK Karviná 1 1.27 -0.27 -8.74
Sat 25/04 1. FC Slovácko 2 0.44 +1.56 -7.18
Sat 02/05 FC Zlín 1 1.87 -0.87 -8.05
Sat 09/05 1. FC Slovácko 0 0.65 -0.65 -8.70
Tue 12/05 Mladá Boleslav 2 1.91 +0.09 -8.61
Sat 16/05 FK Teplice 0 0.89 -0.89 -9.50
Sat 23/05 Baník Ostrava 0 0.99 -0.99 -10.49

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Dukla Praha xG trend

Current form -0.22 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 35 matches. The worst was against SK Slavia Praha on Fri 26/09 (-2.25).

npxG · last 6
1.30
npxGA · last 6
1.52
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.00 Sat 19/07 -0.77 Sat 26/07 -0.37 Sun 03/08 -0.33 Sat 09/08 -0.33 Sat 16/08 -1.79 Sun 24/08 -0.14 Sat 30/08 +1.22 Sat 13/09 -0.11 Sun 21/09 -2.25 Fri 26/09 -1.82 Sat 04/10 -0.93 Sun 19/10 -0.28 Sat 25/10 +0.21 Sat 01/11 +0.37 Sat 08/11 -0.46 Sat 22/11 -1.36 Sat 29/11 -0.37 Sat 06/12 -1.04 Sun 14/12 -1.71 Sat 31/01 -1.03 Sun 08/02 +0.17 Sat 14/02 -0.70 Sun 22/02 -0.44 Fri 27/02 -0.21 Sat 07/03 -0.03 Sat 14/03 -0.08 Sat 04/04 -0.65 Sun 12/04 -0.88 Sat 18/04 -1.50 Sat 25/04 +1.06 Sat 02/05 -1.52 Sat 09/05 +1.49 Tue 12/05 -0.17 Sat 16/05 -0.70 Sat 23/05 -0.53 season avg
Dukla Praha: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 19/07 MFK Karviná 0.85 1.85 -1.00 -1.00
Sat 26/07 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.12 0.89 -0.77 -0.89
Sun 03/08 Baník Ostrava 0.56 0.93 -0.37 -0.71
Sat 09/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0.31 0.64 -0.33 -0.62
Sat 16/08 Viktoria Plzeň 0.93 1.26 -0.33 -0.56
Sun 24/08 AC Sparta Praha 0.55 2.34 -1.79 -0.77
Sat 30/08 FC Hradec Králové 1.56 1.70 -0.14 -0.68
Sat 13/09 FC Zlín 1.88 0.66 +1.22 -0.44
Sun 21/09 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.55 0.66 -0.11 -0.40
Fri 26/09 SK Slavia Praha 0.12 2.37 -2.25 -0.59
Sat 04/10 FK Teplice 0.21 2.03 -1.82 -0.70
Sun 19/10 FK Jablonec 0.56 1.49 -0.93 -0.72
Sat 25/10 1. FC Slovácko 0.69 0.97 -0.28 -0.68
Sat 01/11 FK Pardubice 1.69 1.48 +0.21 -0.62
Sat 08/11 Mladá Boleslav 0.78 0.41 +0.37 -0.55
Sat 22/11 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.84 1.30 -0.46 -0.55
Sat 29/11 Baník Ostrava 1.58 2.94 -1.36 -0.60
Sat 06/12 FC Slovan Liberec 1.27 1.64 -0.37 -0.58
Sun 14/12 Viktoria Plzeň 1.43 2.47 -1.04 -0.61
Sat 31/01 AC Sparta Praha 0.30 2.01 -1.71 -0.66
Sun 08/02 FC Hradec Králové 2.49 3.52 -1.03 -0.68
Sat 14/02 FC Zlín 0.68 0.51 +0.17 -0.64
Sun 22/02 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.23 0.93 -0.70 -0.64
Fri 27/02 SK Slavia Praha 0.56 1.00 -0.44 -0.64
Sat 07/03 FK Teplice 0.99 1.20 -0.21 -0.62
Sat 14/03 FK Jablonec 1.35 1.38 -0.03 -0.60
Sat 04/04 FK Pardubice 0.80 0.88 -0.08 -0.58
Sun 12/04 Mladá Boleslav 0.90 1.55 -0.65 -0.58
Sat 18/04 MFK Karviná 1.27 2.15 -0.88 -0.59
Sat 25/04 1. FC Slovácko 0.50 2.00 -1.50 -0.62
Sat 02/05 FC Zlín 1.90 0.84 +1.06 -0.57
Sat 09/05 1. FC Slovácko 0.65 2.17 -1.52 -0.60
Tue 12/05 Mladá Boleslav 2.43 0.94 +1.49 -0.53
Sat 16/05 FK Teplice 0.89 1.06 -0.17 -0.52
Sat 23/05 Baník Ostrava 1.43 2.13 -0.70 -0.53

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.97 npxG and 1.49 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 9 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.01 xG vs league average
Over 35 league matches
Last 5
number 12 hardest of 14 in Czech First League
−0.25 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 35 matches · tied number 9 hardest of 16

  1. Baník Ostrava Home −0.01
  2. FK Teplice Away −0.30
  3. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.15
  4. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.22
  5. FC Zlín Away −0.56
  6. 1. FC Slovácko Away −0.22
  7. MFK Karviná Home −0.22
  8. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.15
  9. FK Pardubice Home −0.17
  10. FK Jablonec Home −0.01
  11. FK Teplice Away −0.30
  12. SK Slavia Praha Home +0.89
  13. Bohemians Praha 1905 Away +0.07
  14. FC Zlín Home −0.56
  15. FC Hradec Králové Away −0.09
  16. AC Sparta Praha Home +0.38
  17. Viktoria Plzeň Away +0.62
  18. FC Slovan Liberec Home −0.02
  19. Baník Ostrava Away −0.01
  20. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.19
  21. Mladá Boleslav Home −0.15
  22. FK Pardubice Away −0.17
  23. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.22
  24. FK Jablonec Away −0.01
  25. FK Teplice Home −0.30
  26. SK Slavia Praha Away +0.89
  27. Bohemians Praha 1905 Home +0.07
  28. FC Zlín Away −0.56
  29. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.09
  30. AC Sparta Praha Away +0.38
  31. Viktoria Plzeň Home +0.62
  32. FC Slovan Liberec Away −0.02
  33. Baník Ostrava Home −0.01
  34. SK Sigma Olomouc Away +0.19
  35. MFK Karviná Away −0.22

Last 5

−0.25 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 14

  1. Baník Ostrava Home −0.01
  2. FK Teplice Away −0.30
  3. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.15
  4. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.22
  5. FC Zlín Away −0.56

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Dukla Praha shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Dukla Praha take 9.8 shots a match (league 12.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #16 in Czech First League for volume and #10 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.8 shots per match
#16/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.7
#2 Viktoria Plzeň 16.6
#3 AC Sparta Praha 15.2
#4 MFK Karviná 14.4
#5 Baník Ostrava 13.7
#6 FC Slovan Liberec 13.5
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.0
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.8
#9 Mladá Boleslav 12.6
#10 1. FC Slovácko 12.1
#11 FK Jablonec 11.6
#12 FC Zlín 10.7
#13 FK Teplice 10.5
#14 FC Hradec Králové 10.4
#15 FK Pardubice 10.4
#16 Dukla Praha 9.8
League avg
12.8
Total
344 shots from 35 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#10/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FK Pardubice 0.12
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.11
#3 SK Slavia Praha 0.11
#4 FK Jablonec 0.11
#5 AC Sparta Praha 0.11
#6 MFK Karviná 0.11
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#8 FK Teplice 0.10
#9 FC Zlín 0.10
#10 Dukla Praha 0.10
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.10
#12 Viktoria Plzeň 0.10
#13 FC Slovan Liberec 0.10
#14 Baník Ostrava 0.09
#15 Mladá Boleslav 0.09
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
33.85 npxG from 344 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.3 shots per match
#13/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 8.9
#2 AC Sparta Praha 10.1
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 11.0
#4 SK Sigma Olomouc 11.8
=5 Baník Ostrava 12.1
=5 FC Slovan Liberec 12.1
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.0
#8 FK Jablonec 13.1
#9 1. FC Slovácko 13.3
#10 FK Pardubice 13.3
#11 FK Teplice 13.5
#12 FC Zlín 13.9
#13 Dukla Praha 14.3
#14 MFK Karviná 14.4
#15 Mladá Boleslav 14.5
#16 FC Hradec Králové 15.4
League avg
12.8
Total
501 shots allowed from 35 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#10/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.09
#2 AC Sparta Praha 0.09
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 0.09
#4 FC Hradec Králové 0.10
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#6 FK Teplice 0.10
#7 Viktoria Plzeň 0.10
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.10
#9 FK Jablonec 0.10
#10 Dukla Praha 0.10
#11 FK Pardubice 0.11
#12 FC Zlín 0.11
#13 1. FC Slovácko 0.11
#14 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#15 MFK Karviná 0.11
#16 Baník Ostrava 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
52.30 npxGA from 501 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 218 of 344 shots over 35 matches

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 321 of 501 shots allowed over 35 matches

Dukla Praha home and away xG

Dukla Praha per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 18
xG / match 0.88 1.03
xGA / match 1.50 1.76
xGD / match -0.62 -0.73
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.93 0.87

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Dukla Praha match by xG

Venue

This season

Matches
35
xG / match
0.96
xGA / match
1.63
xGD / match
-0.68
Points
26 of 105
  1. Sat 23/05 Baník Ostrava H xG 0.99 xGA 2.16 xGD -1.17
  2. Sat 16/05 FK Teplice A xG 0.89 xGA 1.03 xGD -0.14
  3. Tue 12/05 Mladá Boleslav A Best underlying xG 1.91 xGA 0.94 xGD +0.97
  4. Sat 09/05 1. FC Slovácko H xG 0.65 xGA 2.17 xGD -1.52
  5. Sat 02/05 FC Zlín A xG 1.87 xGA 1.62 P xGD +0.25
  6. Sat 25/04 1. FC Slovácko A Against the chances xG 0.44 xGA 2.00 xGD -1.56
  7. Sat 18/04 MFK Karviná H xG 1.27 xGA 2.15 xGD -0.88
  8. Sun 12/04 Mladá Boleslav A xG 0.90 xGA 1.55 xGD -0.65
  9. Sat 04/04 FK Pardubice H xG 0.69 xGA 0.88 xGD -0.19
  10. Sat 14/03 FK Jablonec H xG 1.35 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.01
  11. Sat 07/03 FK Teplice A xG 0.94 xGA 1.20 xGD -0.26
  12. Fri 27/02 SK Slavia Praha H xG 0.57 xGA 1.79 P xGD -1.22
  13. Sun 22/02 Bohemians Praha 1905 A xG 0.23 xGA 1.72 P xGD -1.49
  14. Sat 14/02 FC Zlín H xG 0.67 xGA 1.30 P xGD -0.63
  15. Sun 08/02 FC Hradec Králové A xG 2.29 xGA 3.44 xGD -1.15
  16. Sat 31/01 AC Sparta Praha H xG 0.31 xGA 2.80 P xGD -2.49
  17. Sun 14/12 Viktoria Plzeň A xG 1.49 xGA 2.44 xGD -0.95
  18. Sat 06/12 FC Slovan Liberec H xG 0.78 xGA 1.64 xGD -0.86
  19. Sat 29/11 Baník Ostrava A xG 1.58 xGA 2.55 xGD -0.97
  20. Sat 22/11 SK Sigma Olomouc H xG 1.63 P xGA 1.30 xGD +0.33
  21. Sat 08/11 Mladá Boleslav H xG 0.78 xGA 0.41 xGD +0.37
  22. Sat 01/11 FK Pardubice A xG 1.60 xGA 1.47 xGD +0.13
  23. Sat 25/10 1. FC Slovácko H xG 0.69 xGA 0.97 xGD -0.28
  24. Sun 19/10 FK Jablonec A xG 0.56 xGA 1.49 xGD -0.93
  25. Sat 04/10 FK Teplice H xG 0.21 xGA 2.03 xGD -1.82
  26. Fri 26/09 SK Slavia Praha A Weakest underlying xG 0.12 xGA 3.12 P xGD -3.00
  27. Sun 21/09 Bohemians Praha 1905 H xG 0.55 xGA 0.66 xGD -0.11
  28. Sat 13/09 FC Zlín A xG 1.88 xGA 1.44 P xGD +0.44
  29. Sat 30/08 FC Hradec Králové H xG 1.54 xGA 1.70 xGD -0.16
  30. Sun 24/08 AC Sparta Praha A xG 0.55 xGA 2.32 xGD -1.77
  31. Sat 16/08 Viktoria Plzeň H xG 1.72 P xGA 1.26 xGD +0.46
  32. Sat 09/08 FC Slovan Liberec A xG 0.31 xGA 0.64 xGD -0.33
  33. Sun 03/08 Baník Ostrava H xG 0.56 xGA 0.93 xGD -0.37
  34. Sat 26/07 SK Sigma Olomouc A xG 0.12 xGA 0.89 xGD -0.77
  35. Sat 19/07 MFK Karviná A xG 0.85 xGA 1.83 xGD -0.98

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.44. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Dukla Praha in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →