Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC Zbrojovka Brno 1:0 FC Hradec Králové
FC Zbrojovka Brno were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Hradec Králové's attack: 0.53 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.63).
Goals
- 60' Daniel Vašulín FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.75 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- FC Hradec Králové
- 31%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Hradec Králové produced 0.63 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 12
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.62
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.82
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.48 for FC Zbrojovka Brno and 0.53 for FC Hradec Králové.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.99 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- FC Hradec Králové
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.02 xG created 1.34 xGA
1.31 xG created 1.15 xGA
- W 2.08 created, 1.76 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- L 1.08 created, 1.14 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- W 1.11 created, 0.31 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.83 created, 0.68 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- W 2.39 created, 0.80 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 0.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +5.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Zbrojovka Brno | 37.4% | 40.2% | −2.8 pp | 2.67 |
| Draw | 31.9% | 27.4% | +4.5 pp | 3.13 |
| FC Hradec Králové | 30.7% | 32.3% | −1.7 pp | 3.26 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 53.7% | +1.9 pp | 1.80 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.4% | 46.3% | −1.9 pp | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | 72.0% | +2.5 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 28.0% | −2.5 pp | 3.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 47.3% | −2.0 pp | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 52.7% | +2.0 pp | 1.83 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Zbrojovka Brno sample
- 5 matches
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.