xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Zbrojovka Brno expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Czech First League · after 9 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Zbrojovka Brno's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Zbrojovka Brno xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.24 xG per match
#10/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.38
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.66
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 1.66
#4 Mladá Boleslav 1.45
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.43
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.39
#7 Baník Ostrava 1.34
#8 FK Pardubice 1.34
#9 FK Jablonec 1.32
#10 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.24
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.23
#12 FK Teplice 1.20
#13 SK Líšeň 1.05
#14 FC Hradec Králové 1.03
#15 1. FC Slovácko 0.92
#16 FC Zlín 0.87
League avg
1.34
Total
11.14 9 matches
Defence
1.52 xGA per match
#13/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.86
#2 FK Jablonec 1.01
#3 SK Slavia Praha 1.02
#4 FC Hradec Králové 1.05
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.10
#6 FK Pardubice 1.20
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.21
#8 AC Sparta Praha 1.25
#9 FK Teplice 1.28
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.37
#11 SK Líšeň 1.42
#12 FC Zlín 1.44
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.52
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.88
#15 Baník Ostrava 1.89
#16 Mladá Boleslav 2.06
League avg
1.34
Total
13.65 9 matches
xG difference
-0.28 xGD per match
#11/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.36
#2 FC Slovan Liberec +0.80
#3 AC Sparta Praha +0.41
#4 Viktoria Plzeň +0.32
#5 FK Jablonec +0.31
#6 FK Pardubice +0.14
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.02
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.02
#9 FC Hradec Králové -0.02
#10 FK Teplice -0.08
#11 FC Zbrojovka Brno -0.28
#12 SK Líšeň -0.37
#13 Baník Ostrava -0.55
#14 FC Zlín -0.57
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.62
#16 1. FC Slovácko -0.96
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.51 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.33 xPts per match
#9/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.11
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 1.90
#3 AC Sparta Praha 1.68
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 1.61
#5 FK Jablonec 1.59
#6 FK Pardubice 1.46
#7 FC Hradec Králové 1.39
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.39
#9 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.33
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.31
#11 FK Teplice 1.30
#12 SK Líšeň 1.11
#13 Mladá Boleslav 1.03
#14 Baník Ostrava 1.02
#15 FC Zlín 0.90
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
11.97 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Zbrojovka Brno's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Czech First League. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.28 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 12 goals are 0.86 above 11.14 xG, while 16 points are 4.03 above 11.97 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
12 11.14 +0.86 scored 0.86 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
12 13.65 -1.65 conceded 1.65 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 11.97 +4.03 4.03 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Zbrojovka Brno are 0.86 goals above their xG after 9 matches. The gap was widest at +3.91, against FC Zlín on Sat 29/08.

Goals
12
xG
11.14
Gap
+0.86
Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Fri 07/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.79 +1.14 +0.62 +1.93 +3.91 +3.43 +2.64 +3.35 +0.86 +0.79 +0.35 -0.52 +1.31 +1.98 -0.48 -0.79 +0.71 -2.49 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Zbrojovka Brno: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 25/07 AC Sparta Praha 3 2.21 +0.79 +0.79
Sat 01/08 Viktoria Plzeň 1 0.65 +0.35 +1.14
Fri 07/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0 0.52 -0.52 +0.62
Sun 23/08 FK Teplice 2 0.69 +1.31 +1.93
Sat 29/08 FC Zlín 3 1.02 +1.98 +3.91
Wed 02/09 FC Hradec Králové 1 1.48 -0.48 +3.43
Sat 05/09 SK Slavia Praha 0 0.79 -0.79 +2.64
Sat 12/09 SK Líšeň 2 1.29 +0.71 +3.35
Sat 19/09 Mladá Boleslav 0 2.49 -2.49 +0.86

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Zbrojovka Brno xG trend

Current form -0.15 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 9 matches. The worst was against SK Slavia Praha on Sat 05/09 (-2.75).

npxG · last 6
1.19
npxGA · last 6
1.33
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.62 Sat 25/07 -0.18 Sat 01/08 -2.41 Fri 07/08 -0.14 Sun 23/08 +0.30 Sat 29/08 +0.95 Wed 02/09 -2.75 Sat 05/09 +0.08 Sat 12/09 +0.69 Sat 19/09 -0.32 season avg
FC Zbrojovka Brno: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 25/07 AC Sparta Praha 2.21 1.59 +0.62 +0.62
Sat 01/08 Viktoria Plzeň 0.62 0.80 -0.18 +0.22
Fri 07/08 FC Slovan Liberec 0.71 3.12 -2.41 -0.66
Sun 23/08 FK Teplice 0.69 0.83 -0.14 -0.53
Sat 29/08 FC Zlín 1.15 0.85 +0.30 -0.36
Wed 02/09 FC Hradec Králové 1.48 0.53 +0.95 -0.14
Sat 05/09 SK Slavia Praha 0.79 3.54 -2.75 -0.52
Sat 12/09 SK Líšeň 1.30 1.22 +0.08 -0.44
Sat 19/09 Mladá Boleslav 1.72 1.03 +0.69 -0.32

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.19 npxG and 1.50 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
tied number 12 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.05 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 16

  1. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.38
  2. SK Líšeň Home −0.32
  3. SK Slavia Praha Away +0.82
  4. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.08
  5. FC Zlín Home −0.45
  6. FK Teplice Away −0.14
  7. FC Slovan Liberec Home +0.30
  8. Viktoria Plzeň Away +0.36
  9. AC Sparta Praha Home +0.37

Last 5

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 16

  1. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.38
  2. SK Líšeň Home −0.32
  3. SK Slavia Praha Away +0.82
  4. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.08
  5. FC Zlín Home −0.45

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Zbrojovka Brno shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. FC Zbrojovka Brno take 11.8 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #13 in Czech First League for volume and #7 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 28% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.8 shots per match
#13/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.3
#2 AC Sparta Praha 16.6
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 16.2
#4 FK Jablonec 15.7
#5 FK Teplice 14.5
#6 Viktoria Plzeň 14.0
#7 FK Pardubice 13.0
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 12.6
#9 Baník Ostrava 12.4
=10 FC Hradec Králové 12.0
=10 Mladá Boleslav 12.0
#12 FC Zlín 11.9
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 11.8
#14 1. FC Slovácko 11.0
#15 SK Sigma Olomouc 10.8
#16 SK Líšeň 9.8
League avg
13.2
Total
106 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#7/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.13
#2 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#3 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.11
#4 SK Líšeň 0.11
#5 FC Slovan Liberec 0.11
#6 FK Pardubice 0.10
#7 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.10
#8 Baník Ostrava 0.10
#9 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.09
#11 FK Jablonec 0.09
#12 FC Hradec Králové 0.09
#13 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#14 1. FC Slovácko 0.08
#15 FK Teplice 0.08
#16 FC Zlín 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
10.67 npxG from 106 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.0 shots per match
#8/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 10.7
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 10.8
#3 AC Sparta Praha 11.6
#4 FK Jablonec 11.7
#5 1. FC Slovácko 12.2
=6 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.4
=6 Viktoria Plzeň 12.4
#8 FC Zbrojovka Brno 13.0
#9 FK Pardubice 13.3
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.6
#11 FC Hradec Králové 13.9
#12 FK Teplice 14.6
#13 Baník Ostrava 14.7
#14 FC Zlín 14.9
#15 SK Líšeň 15.0
#16 Mladá Boleslav 17.8
League avg
13.2
Total
117 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#14/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.07
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.08
#3 FK Jablonec 0.08
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#5 FK Pardubice 0.09
#6 FC Zlín 0.09
#7 FK Teplice 0.09
#8 SK Líšeň 0.09
#9 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.09
#10 SK Slavia Praha 0.10
#11 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#12 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#13 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#14 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.12
#15 Baník Ostrava 0.13
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
13.51 npxGA from 117 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 72 of 106 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 73 of 117 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.9 of 10.6 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

69% open play · 31% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 4.2 of 13.5 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Zbrojovka Brno home and away xG

FC Zbrojovka Brno per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 4
xG / match 1.30 1.16
xGA / match 1.33 1.75
xGD / match -0.03 -0.59
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.45 1.18

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Zbrojovka Brno match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
9
xG / match
1.24
xGA / match
1.52
xGD / match
-0.28
Points
16 of 27
  1. Sat 19/09 Mladá Boleslav A Against the chances xG 2.49 P xGA 1.03 xGD +1.46
  2. Sat 12/09 SK Líšeň H xG 1.29 xGA 1.04 xGD +0.25
  3. Sat 05/09 SK Slavia Praha A Weakest underlying xG 0.79 xGA 4.33 P xGD -3.54
  4. Wed 02/09 FC Hradec Králové H xG 1.48 xGA 0.53 xGD +0.95
  5. Sat 29/08 FC Zlín H xG 1.02 xGA 0.90 xGD +0.12
  6. Sun 23/08 FK Teplice A xG 0.69 xGA 0.82 xGD -0.13
  7. Fri 07/08 FC Slovan Liberec H xG 0.52 xGA 2.75 xGD -2.23
  8. Sat 01/08 Viktoria Plzeň A xG 0.65 xGA 0.80 xGD -0.15
  9. Sat 25/07 AC Sparta Praha H xG 2.21 xGA 1.45 xGD +0.76

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.33. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Zbrojovka Brno in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect