Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFC Zbrojovka Brno 2:1 SK Líšeň
FC Zbrojovka Brno were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 15' Antonin Vanicek FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 41' Lukas Penxa FC Zbrojovka Brno · 0.25 xG chance 2–0
- 69' El Hadji Latyr Ndiaye SK Líšeň · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- SK Líšeň
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 10
- On target
- 9
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.08
- 0.69
- Set-piece xG
- 0.18
- 0.55
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.30 for FC Zbrojovka Brno and 1.22 for SK Líšeň.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.50 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- SK Líšeň
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.86 xG created 1.69 xGA
- D 0.65 created, 0.80 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- L 0.52 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- W 0.69 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 1.02 created, 0.90 conceded against FC Zlín
- W 1.48 created, 0.53 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- L 0.79 created, 4.33 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
1.03 xG created 1.48 xGA
- D 1.42 created, 0.53 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 1.40 created, 0.83 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 0.91 created, 2.23 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 1.21 created, 1.78 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- W 0.80 created, 1.81 conceded against FK Pardubice
- L 0.44 created, 1.70 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Zbrojovka Brno sample
- 7 matches
- SK Líšeň sample
- 7 matches
- Computed
- 6 minutes before kick-off
Warnings
- FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- SK Líšeň has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.