Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeSK Líšeň 0:3 Viktoria Plzeň
Viktoria Plzeň were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SK Líšeň's attack: 0.44 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.73).
Goals
- 30' Amar Memić Viktoria Plzeň · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
- 43' Cheick Souaré Viktoria Plzeň · 0.11 xG chance 0–2
- 44' Lukáš Červ Viktoria Plzeň · 0.08 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- SK Líšeň
- 27%
- Draw
- 30%
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 43% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
SK Líšeň produced 0.73 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 18
- On target
- 1
- 9
- Inside the box
- 6
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.23
- 1.35
- Set-piece xG
- 0.21
- 0.36
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.71 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.15 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Líšeň
- Viktoria Plzeň
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.22 xG created 1.56 xGA
- L 1.57 created, 2.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- D 1.42 created, 0.53 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- L 1.40 created, 0.83 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 0.91 created, 2.23 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- L 1.21 created, 1.78 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- W 0.80 created, 1.81 conceded against FK Pardubice
1.35 xG created 1.43 xGA
- L 0.23 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- L 1.07 created, 2.50 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- D 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- D 2.49 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.22 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 1.28 created, 0.41 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Líšeň sample
- 6 matches
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- SK Líšeň has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.