SK Líšeň 0:4 AC Sparta Praha: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Czech First League

SK Líšeň Home 1.21 xG · 10 shots

AC Sparta Praha Away 1.78 xG · 12 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

AC Sparta Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was AC Sparta Praha's attack: 1.78 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.28).

Goals

7' John Mercado AC Sparta Praha · 0.26 xG chance 0–1
33' Matěj Ryneš AC Sparta Praha · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
53' Josimar Alcócer AC Sparta Praha · 0.11 xG chance 0–3
66' Adam Karabec (pen.) AC Sparta Praha · 0.82 xG chance 0–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SK Líšeň: 26%
Draw: 30%
AC Sparta Praha: 44% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SK Líšeň 1.15 1.21 +0.06

AC Sparta Praha 1.50 1.78 +0.28

AC Sparta Praha produced 0.28 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SK Líšeň AC Sparta Praha

Shots: 10; 12
On target: 0; 9
Inside the box: 8; 10
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.16
Open play xG: 1.03; 0.66
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.38
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.21 for SK Líšeň and 1.02 for AC Sparta Praha.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 3.10 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SK Líšeň
AC Sparta Praha
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SK Líšeň

1.33 xG created 1.44 xGA

L 1.57 created, 2.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
D 1.42 created, 0.53 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 1.40 created, 0.83 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
L 0.91 created, 2.23 conceded against Baník Ostrava

AC Sparta Praha

1.63 xG created 1.21 xGA

W 2.17 created, 0.74 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 1.14 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
L 1.45 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
W 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Zlín
L 0.77 created, 1.49 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 2.12 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SK Líšeň sample: 4 matches
AC Sparta Praha sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SK Líšeň has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.