SK Slavia Praha 4:0 FC Zbrojovka Brno: xG & match report · Czech First League

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Czech First League

SK Slavia Praha Home 4.33 xG · 16 shots

FC Zbrojovka Brno Away 0.79 xG · 11 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

SK Slavia Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was SK Slavia Praha's attack: 4.33 xG against 2.19 projected (+2.14).

Goals

38' Tomáš Chorý (pen.) SK Slavia Praha · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
65' Tomáš Chorý SK Slavia Praha · 0.36 xG chance 2–0
76' Emmanuel Ayaosi SK Slavia Praha · 0.51 xG chance 3–0
88' David Jurásek SK Slavia Praha · 0.70 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SK Slavia Praha: 69% What happened
Draw: 21%
FC Zbrojovka Brno: 10%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SK Slavia Praha 2.19 4.33 +2.14

FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.81 0.79 -0.02

SK Slavia Praha produced 2.14 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SK Slavia Praha FC Zbrojovka Brno

Shots: 16; 11
On target: 6; 0
Inside the box: 10; 5
xG per shot: 0.27; 0.07
Open play xG: 3.17; 0.50
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.30
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.54 for SK Slavia Praha and 0.79 for FC Zbrojovka Brno.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 5.16 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SK Slavia Praha
FC Zbrojovka Brno
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SK Slavia Praha

2.34 xG created 1.10 xGA

W 3.73 created, 0.62 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 2.19 created, 0.70 conceded against Baník Ostrava
W 2.86 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Pardubice
D 0.67 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 2.74 created, 0.81 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 1.83 created, 2.34 conceded against AC Sparta Praha

FC Zbrojovka Brno

1.10 xG created 1.21 xGA

W 2.21 created, 1.45 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
D 0.65 created, 0.80 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.52 created, 2.75 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 0.69 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
W 1.02 created, 0.90 conceded against FC Zlín
W 1.48 created, 0.53 conceded against FC Hradec Králové

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SK Slavia Praha against FC Zbrojovka Brno before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.50	+16.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.55	+3.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Slavia Praha	69.1%	74.7%	−5.6 pp	1.45
Draw	21.1%	16.3%	+4.8 pp	4.74
FC Zbrojovka Brno	9.8%	9.0%	+0.8 pp	10.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.5%	48.5%	+6.0 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.5%	51.5%	−6.0 pp	2.20
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	83.2%	+0.5 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	16.8%	−0.5 pp	6.15
Over 2.5 goals	59.6%	63.8%	−4.2 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.4%	36.3%	+4.2 pp	2.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SK Slavia Praha sample: 20 matches
FC Zbrojovka Brno sample: 6 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.