Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeAC Sparta Praha 0:3 SK Slavia Praha
SK Slavia Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was AC Sparta Praha's attack: 2.34 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.17). SK Slavia Praha produced 1.83 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.26).
Goals
- 11' Wiktor Nowak SK Slavia Praha · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
- 59' Danijel Šturm SK Slavia Praha · 0.58 xG chance 0–2
- 90' Emmanuel Ayaosi SK Slavia Praha · 0.19 xG chance 0–3
The model against the result
- AC Sparta Praha
- 25%
- Draw
- 29%
- SK Slavia Praha
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
AC Sparta Praha produced 1.17 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 8
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 15
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 1.78
- 1.70
- Set-piece xG
- 0.66
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.48 for AC Sparta Praha.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 4.27 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AC Sparta Praha
- SK Slavia Praha
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.56 xG created 1.29 xGA
- W 1.14 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- L 1.45 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Zlín
- L 0.77 created, 1.49 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- W 2.12 created, 0.82 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 1.78 created, 1.21 conceded against SK Líšeň
2.45 xG created 0.75 xGA
- W 2.48 created, 0.23 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- W 3.73 created, 0.62 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 2.19 created, 0.70 conceded against Baník Ostrava
- W 2.86 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.67 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- D 2.74 created, 0.81 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Slavia Praha to win | 2.35 | +13.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Sparta Praha | 25.5% | 33.7% | −8.2 pp | 3.92 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.6% | +1.7 pp | 3.41 |
| SK Slavia Praha | 45.2% | 38.7% | +6.5 pp | 2.21 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 57.7% | +2.7 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.6% | 42.3% | −2.7 pp | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 76.6% | +3.4 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 23.4% | −3.4 pp | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 52.6% | +0.4 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 47.4% | −0.4 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AC Sparta Praha sample
- 20 matches
- SK Slavia Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.