FC Zlín 1:2 FC Hradec Králové: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Czech First League

FC Zlín Home 1.54 xG · 18 shots

FC Hradec Králové Away 0.96 xG · 10 shots

12 The result went against the chances

FC Hradec Králové were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Zlín's attack: 1.54 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.41).

Goals

8' David Machalík FC Zlín · 0.60 xG chance 1–0
45' Tomáš Čvančara FC Hradec Králové · 0.59 xG chance 1–1
46' Tom Slončík FC Hradec Králové · 0.07 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Zlín: 32%
Draw: 33%
FC Hradec Králové: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Zlín 1.13 1.54 +0.41

FC Hradec Králové 1.20 0.96 -0.24

FC Zlín produced 0.41 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Zlín FC Hradec Králové

Shots: 18; 10
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 11; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.27; 0.91
Set-piece xG: 0.29; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.54 for FC Zlín and 0.96 for FC Hradec Králové.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.54 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Zlín
FC Hradec Králové
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Zlín

0.84 xG created 1.63 xGA

L 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
L 0.84 created, 1.94 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
L 1.06 created, 2.22 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.38 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
L 0.90 created, 1.02 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
L 0.96 created, 1.35 conceded against FK Teplice

FC Hradec Králové

1.03 xG created 1.09 xGA

D 0.83 created, 0.68 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 2.39 created, 0.80 conceded against Baník Ostrava
L 0.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
L 0.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
W 1.14 created, 1.18 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
D 0.92 created, 0.21 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Zlín: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Zlín against FC Hradec Králové before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Hradec Králové at most 1 goal	1.67	+9.7%	Lost
Draw	3.25	+7.1%	Lost
FC Zlín 2+ goals	3.40	+6.6%	Lost
FC Zlín to win	3.30	+4.3%	Lost
FC Hradec Králové not to score	3.75	+2.5%	Lost
FC Zlín to score	1.44	+1.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+0.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zlín	31.6%	27.9%	+3.7 pp	3.16
Draw	32.9%	28.3%	+4.6 pp	3.04
FC Hradec Králové	35.5%	43.8%	−8.4 pp	2.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zlín to score	70.3%	64.5%	+5.8 pp	1.42
FC Zlín not to score	29.7%	35.5%	−5.8 pp	3.36
FC Hradec Králové to score	72.7%	75.0%	−2.3 pp	1.38
FC Hradec Králové not to score	27.3%	25.0%	+2.3 pp	3.66
Both teams to score	53.0%	52.0%	+1.0 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.0%	48.0%	−1.0 pp	2.13
FC Zlín 2+ goals	31.3%	27.7%	+3.7 pp	3.19
FC Zlín at most 1 goal	68.7%	72.3%	−3.7 pp	1.46
FC Hradec Králové 2+ goals	34.2%	44.3%	−10.1 pp	2.93
FC Hradec Králové at most 1 goal	65.8%	55.7%	+10.1 pp	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	71.7%	70.9%	+0.8 pp	1.39
Under 1.5 goals	28.3%	29.1%	−0.8 pp	3.54
Over 2.5 goals	41.7%	45.4%	−3.8 pp	2.40
Under 2.5 goals	58.3%	54.6%	+3.8 pp	1.71

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Zlín sample: 20 matches
FC Hradec Králové sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.