Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 15:00
Kicked offFK Jablonec – Baník Ostrava
Model not yet run Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Jablonec
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Baník Ostrava
- 25%
| FK Jablonec | Draw | Baník Ostrava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.31 | 3.98 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Jablonec
45% FK Jablonec to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 15th
- FK Jablonec attack v Baník Ostrava defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 10th
- FK Jablonec defence v Baník Ostrava attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.85 vs +0.29
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.11
- FK Jablonec v Baník Ostrava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Jablonec | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 9th | (better) 1.34 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.01 · 2nd | 1.89 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.31 · 5th | -0.55 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.59 · 5th | 1.02 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.85 | (better) +0.30 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Jablonec sample
- 20 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Jablonec
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Baník Ostrava
- 5 matches
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.