Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeSK Sigma Olomouc 3:1 FK Pardubice
SK Sigma Olomouc were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 3–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 36' Dominik Janošek SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 54' Péter Baráth SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 65' Abubakar Ghali SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.46 xG chance 3–0
- 88' Ryan Mahuta FK Pardubice · 0.65 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Pardubice
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 6
- On target
- 4
- 1
- Inside the box
- 8
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 1.03
- 0.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.19
- 0.79
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for SK Sigma Olomouc and 1.34 for FK Pardubice.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 2.59 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- FK Pardubice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.60 xG created 1.17 xGA
- W 1.86 created, 1.70 conceded against MFK Karviná
- W 2.06 created, 0.38 conceded against MFK Karviná
- L 0.37 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Jablonec
- D 2.48 created, 1.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- W 0.83 created, 1.40 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 2.02 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
1.47 xG created 1.60 xGA
- W 1.83 created, 1.18 conceded against MFK Karviná
- L 1.89 created, 3.06 conceded against MFK Karviná
- L 0.31 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- L 2.75 created, 0.61 conceded against FK Jablonec
- L 0.66 created, 2.86 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.37 created, 0.75 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Sigma Olomouc | 45.7% | 49.3% | −3.6 pp | 2.19 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.1% | +3.2 pp | 3.42 |
| FK Pardubice | 25.1% | 24.6% | +0.5 pp | 3.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 55.7% | +4.2 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.0% | 44.3% | −4.2 pp | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | 76.6% | +3.2 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 23.4% | −3.2 pp | 4.94 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 53.9% | −1.1 pp | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 46.1% | +1.1 pp | 2.12 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sigma Olomouc sample
- 20 matches
- FK Pardubice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.