Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timePiast Gliwice 1:1 Legia Warszawa
Piast Gliwice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 7' Łukasz Zjawiński Legia Warszawa · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Leandro Sanca Piast Gliwice · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Piast Gliwice
- 36%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Legia Warszawa
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 13
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.13
- 0.41
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.55
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Piast Gliwice and 0.98 for Legia Warszawa.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.15 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Piast Gliwice
- Legia Warszawa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.83 xGA
- L 3.28 created, 0.83 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 0.47 created, 0.67 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 0.75 created, 1.09 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.79 created, 3.61 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Lech Poznań
- L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
1.83 xG created 0.80 xGA
- W 1.53 created, 1.03 conceded against KS Lechia Gdańsk
- W 2.33 created, 0.54 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 3.02 created, 1.08 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.70 created, 1.03 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 0.69 created, 0.73 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 1.68 created, 0.38 conceded against Radomiak Radom
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice to win | 3.40 | +21.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +6.9% | Won |
| Draw | 3.30 | +6.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 35.8% | 26.8% | +9.0 pp | 2.79 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 27.6% | +4.5 pp | 3.11 |
| Legia Warszawa | 32.1% | 45.6% | −13.5 pp | 3.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 54.7% | +1.2 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.1% | 45.3% | −1.2 pp | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | 75.0% | −0.4 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 25.0% | +0.4 pp | 3.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 51.3% | −6.1 pp | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 48.7% | +6.1 pp | 1.82 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Piast Gliwice sample
- 20 matches
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.