Pogoń Szczecin 2:2 Wisła Kraków: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Pogoń Szczecin Home 1.32 xG · 13 shots

Wisła Kraków Away 0.86 xG · 15 shots

22 Pogoń Szczecin had the better chances, but it finished level

Wisła Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Wisła Kraków's attack: 0.86 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.75).

Goals

3' Musa Juwara Pogoń Szczecin · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
20' Musa Juwara (o.g.) Wisła Kraków · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
24' Linus Wahlqvist Pogoń Szczecin · 0.57 xG chance 2–1
33' Elie Youan Wisła Kraków · 0.34 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Pogoń Szczecin: 30%
Draw: 28% What happened
Wisła Kraków: 42%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Pogoń Szczecin 1.35 1.32 -0.03

Wisła Kraków 1.61 0.86 -0.75

Wisła Kraków produced 0.75 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Kraków

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.74; 0.47
Set-piece xG: 0.64; 0.49
Penalties: —; —

Pogoń Szczecin's shots add up to 1.38 xG and Wisła Kraków's to 0.96; the published figures are 1.32 and 0.86.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Kraków
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Pogoń Szczecin

1.38 xG created 1.43 xGA

L 0.96 created, 2.09 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
W 1.97 created, 0.56 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 1.00 created, 0.87 conceded against GKS Katowice
L 1.08 created, 3.02 conceded against Legia Warszawa
W 0.93 created, 1.15 conceded against Cracovia
W 2.35 created, 0.92 conceded against Motor Lublin

Wisła Kraków

2.46 xG created 1.27 xGA

W 2.76 created, 1.20 conceded against GKS Katowice
L 3.61 created, 1.79 conceded against Piast Gliwice
W 1.78 created, 1.49 conceded against Wisła Płock
L 1.69 created, 0.60 conceded against Górnik Zabrze

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Pogoń Szczecin against Wisła Kraków before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Wisła Kraków to win	2.63	+9.8%	Lost
Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal	1.73	+3.5%	Lost
Wisła Kraków 2+ goals	2.10	+3.5%	Won
Wisła Kraków to score	1.25	+3.0%	Won
Pogoń Szczecin not to score	4.33	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Pogoń Szczecin	29.7%	39.0%	−9.3 pp	3.37
Draw	28.5%	26.2%	+2.3 pp	3.51
Wisła Kraków	41.8%	34.9%	+6.9 pp	2.39

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Pogoń Szczecin to score	76.8%	78.3%	−1.5 pp	1.30
Pogoń Szczecin not to score	23.2%	21.7%	+1.5 pp	4.32
Wisła Kraków to score	82.4%	75.0%	+7.4 pp	1.21
Wisła Kraków not to score	17.6%	25.0%	−7.4 pp	5.69
Both teams to score	64.9%	60.8%	+4.1 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.1%	39.2%	−4.1 pp	2.85
Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals	40.0%	46.3%	−6.3 pp	2.50
Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal	60.0%	53.7%	+6.3 pp	1.67
Wisła Kraków 2+ goals	49.3%	44.3%	+5.0 pp	2.03
Wisła Kraków at most 1 goal	50.7%	55.7%	−5.0 pp	1.97
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	79.2%	+4.2 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	20.8%	−4.2 pp	6.01
Over 2.5 goals	58.5%	57.1%	+1.3 pp	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.5%	42.9%	−1.3 pp	2.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Pogoń Szczecin sample: 20 matches
Wisła Kraków sample: 4 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

Wisła Kraków has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.