Friday, 28/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeWisła Płock 0:2 MKS Korona Kielce
Wisła Płock were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. MKS Korona Kielce won 2–0. The biggest difference was Wisła Płock's attack: 2.25 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.79). MKS Korona Kielce produced 0.92 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.37).
Goals
- 21' Morgan Fassbender MKS Korona Kielce · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
- 49' Mariusz Stępiński MKS Korona Kielce · 0.20 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Wisła Płock
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 31% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Wisła Płock produced 0.79 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 16
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 0.87
- Set-piece xG
- 1.18
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.26 for Wisła Płock.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.19 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Wisła Płock
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.60 xG created 1.70 xGA
- L 0.73 created, 1.01 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- D 3.24 created, 1.23 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 0.86 created, 1.46 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 1.54 created, 1.79 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 1.49 created, 1.78 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.73 created, 2.90 conceded against GKS Katowice
0.92 xG created 1.14 xGA
- W 0.81 created, 0.56 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.25 created, 1.41 conceded against Cracovia
- L 0.77 created, 1.16 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.73 created, 0.69 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.88 created, 0.68 conceded against Motor Lublin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +11.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +6.7% | Won |
| Wisła Płock to win | 2.63 | +2.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock | 39.1% | 34.8% | +4.3 pp | 2.56 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 29.4% | +0.4 pp | 3.35 |
| MKS Korona Kielce | 31.0% | 35.8% | −4.8 pp | 3.22 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 52.0% | +9.3 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.7% | 48.0% | −9.3 pp | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 70.9% | +9.1 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 29.1% | −9.1 pp | 5.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 44.7% | +8.4 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 55.3% | −8.4 pp | 2.14 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.