Ekstraklasa expected points table 2026/2027
Every Ekstraklasa club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Wisła Kraków lead on expected points with 17.77 over 9 matches with xG. That is 1.22 clear of Lech Poznań. Piast Gliwice sit 9 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 8 against 17 on expected points. Cracovia sit 7 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 13 against 6 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wisła Kraków WIS | 9 | 17 | 17.77 | −0.77 | 4 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | Lech Poznań LEC | 8 | 19 | 16.55 | +2.45 | 3 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Górnik Zabrze GÓR | 9 | 22 | 16.10 | +5.90 | 1 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa LEG | 9 | 19 | 14.98 | +4.02 | 2 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin ZAG | 9 | 15 | 13.20 | +1.80 | 7 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Cracovia CRA | 9 | 8 | 12.80 | −4.80 | 13 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Pogoń Szczecin POG | 8 | 15 | 11.84 | +3.16 | 5 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź WID | 9 | 9 | 11.63 | −2.63 | 12 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 9 | MKS Korona Kielce MKS | 9 | 15 | 11.47 | +3.53 | 6 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Motor Lublin MOT | 9 | 6 | 11.30 | −5.30 | 16 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Śląsk Wrocław ŚLĄ | 9 | 6 | 10.78 | −4.78 | 15 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 12 | Wieczysta Kraków WIE | 8 | 5 | 10.65 | −5.65 | 17 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | GKS Katowice GKS | 8 | 12 | 10.40 | +1.60 | 9 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 14 | Wisła Płock WIS | 8 | 11 | 10.37 | +0.63 | 11 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 15 | Jagiellonia Białystok JAG | 8 | 12 | 9.80 | +2.20 | 10 | 5 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom RAD | 9 | 8 | 8.91 | −0.91 | 14 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 17 | Piast Gliwice PIA | 9 | 13 | 8.68 | +4.32 | 8 | 9 places above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa RAK | 9 | 3 | 8.41 | −5.41 | 18 | Same place as on expected points |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.